Ethereum is seeing recent strength after breaking above the $3,300 level and briefly breaching the $3,400 level, signaling a potential shift in near-term momentum. However, despite this recovery, confidence in the bullish trend remains delicate. Many analysts continue to warn that the broader trend remains bearish, emphasizing that Ethereum has yet to regain the structural levels necessary to confirm a macro reversal.
However, one signal has attracted significant attention: according to fresh data from Lookonchain, the gigantic whale known as BitcoinOG has doubled down on its long position in Ethereum. The trader is widely regarded as a whale who managed to miniature sell Bitcoin during the October 10 market crash, netting him significant profits and boosting his reputation in the on-chain analyst community.
Instead of taking profits from ETH’s recent pump, he expanded his long exposure – which is an extremely aggressive stance at a time when most traders remain cautious.
His renewed commitment raises questions about whether the clever money is calmly positioning itself for a bigger move higher, even as broader sentiment remains skeptical. If the momentum continues, Ethereum could be setting itself up for a much more significant move than the market is currently expecting.
Whale positioning and the impact of the FOMC
According to Lookonchain, the whale known as BitcoinOG has now expanded its position to 85,001 ETH worth approximately $280 million and currently sits on an unrealized profit of over $16 million. Such aggressive accumulation during a period of widespread caution signals a clear disconnect between retail sentiment and whale behavior.
When a trader with a proven track record positions it strongly on the long side, it often reflects a strategic belief that market conditions may soon change in favor of higher prices.
However, this position is developing as the market approaches a key macro event: the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision could dramatically impact the liquidity, risk appetite, and short-term volatility of all risky assets, including Ethereum.
A rate cut could fill the market with optimism by weakening the US dollar and improving overall liquidity conditions. Conversely, a hawkish tone or smaller-than-expected policy adjustment could trigger a sell-off reaction to the news, especially as ETH approaches resistance.
In Ethereum’s case, whale accumulation combined with macro uncertainty creates a high-stakes environment. If liquidity increases after the FOMC, ETH could gain momentum. Otherwise, even powerful whale positions may come under short-term pressure.
ETH Tests Breakout Strength Before Key Resistance
Ethereum’s 4-hour chart shows a definite change in momentum, with ETH well above the $3,300 level after a immaculate breakout from a multi-week downtrend. This move marks one of the strongest bullish impulses since the beginning of November, supported by increasing volume and a clear rebound of the 50 EMA and 100 EMA.
The 200 EMA (red), which previously acted as energetic resistance throughout the decline, has now been tested and is starting to flatten out – often an early sign of bearish momentum losing its dominance.
However, ETH is currently hovering directly below the critical resistance zone around $3,380-$3,420, a level that sellers have previously aggressively entered. Current consolidation just below this zone discovers undecided market: bulls attempt to establish acceptance above $3,300 while bearish defend another resistance layer.
If buyers can turn $3,320 into solid support, the path to $3,500 will become easier to achieve, especially if broader market sentiment improves. Conversely, a rejection from the $3,400 area could trigger a short-term reversal towards $3,200-$3,250 where the moving averages are currently stacked as layered support.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
