A monthly market review through the publicly listed in the USA based in the USA Crypto Exchange Coinbase shows that although the cryptographic market has arranged, it seems that it is preparing for a better quarter.
According to Coinbase, April 15 per month perspectives In the case of institutional investors, Altcoin market capitalization has decreased by 41% compared to maximum from December 2024 from $ 1.6 trillion to USD $ 950 billion to mid -April. Data on BTC tools show that this record affected a low level of USD 906.9 billion on April 9 and amounted to USD 976.9 billion at the time of writing.
Finishing Venture Capital for cryptographic projects reportedly dropped by 50-60% compared to 2021–22. In the report, the global head of research Coinbase, David Duong, emphasized that there could be a fresh cryptographic winter over us.
“Several convergent signals may indicate the beginning of a new” cryptographic winter “because there have been some extreme negative feelings due to the beginning of global tariffs and the potential of further escalation,” he said.
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Macroeconomic misfortunes cause cryptographic confusion
The report notes that lower capitalist interest “significantly limits the implementation of new capital to the ecosystem”, which is felt primarily in the Altcoin sector. The reason for this, according to Duong, is the current macroeconomic environment:
“All these structural pressure results from the uncertainty of a wider macro environment, in which traditional risk assets stood in the face of maintained information about fiscal sharpening and tariff policy, contributing to the paralysis of investment decisions.”
According to Coinbase researchers, these facts resulted in a “difficult cyclical prospect of digital assets”, and the order is still caution in the next four to six weeks. Despite this, the author of the report said that the market will probably change the directions:
“When the sentiment finally reset, it will probably happen quite quickly and we will remain constructive for the second half of 2025.”
Duong quoted some indicators to indicate when the cryptocurrency market is changing between the phases of bulls and bears, including corrected risk results and a 200-day movable average.
Another measure was the result from Bitcoin (BTC), which compares the market value and implemented value to identify overcrowded and sold out conditions. The result shows how unusual current price efficiency compared to historical data.
Correct performance with Bitcoin risk. Source: Coins
This record “naturally takes into account the greater variability of cryptocurrencies”, but the reaction is also tardy. This record tends to generate several signals in stable markets. The Coinbase model, based on it, determined that the bull market ended at the end of February, but since then he recognized the neutral market.
Bitcoin model with S-score Coinbase. Source: Coins
Instead, the Coinbase analyst suggested that the 200-day movable average is a better indicator of determining market trends. Smoothes brief -term noise, while taking into account market data worth the last 200 days.
200-day average Bitcoin Coinbase average model. Source: Coins
The report also stated that the assessment of a wider trend of the cryptographic market towards Bitcoin’s movement is becoming less and less reliable. This is due to the fact that Crypto is expanding to fresh sectors with decentralized finances (DEFI), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (Depin), artificial intelligence agents and others, all with specific market forces independent of bitcoins.
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Are we on bears?
Duong points out that the 200-day moving average suggests that a recent fall in Bitcoin moved him to the bear’s territory at the end of March. Despite this, the utilize of the same model for the Coin50 Coinbase index based on the 50 best cryptographic assets shows bears since the end of February.
The 200-day Coinbase movable model has been used to the Coin50 index. Source: Coins
Recent reports indicate that Bitcoin has a growing resistance to macroeconomic winds compared to time-honored financial markets. “Bitcoin’s decline was relatively small, according to Wintermute, renewing price levels from about the US election period.”
Duong sees Bitcoin becoming a less generalized cryptographic indicator as a result of this trend. He wrote:
“As Bitcoin’s role increases as a” value magazine “, we believe that the holistic assessment of the total market activity of cryptocurrencies will be needed to better define bulls and bear markets for the asset class.”
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