Key takeaways:

• As of 2024, spot ETF inflows and outflows are the strongest factor influencing Bitcoin’s green and red days.

• With exchange balances near multi-year lows, each major order moves further down the ledger.

• Huge holders often split trades or employ OTC desks, muting noticeable shocks from “portfolio movement.”

• Funding rates, open interest, the dollar and yields often shape the direction of the day more than any single portfolio.

Everyone “knows” that whales move Bitcoin (BTC), and yet they can shock prices.

Since the advent of spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), Bitcoin’s direction has often been influenced by ETF inflows and outflows. It also depends on how much tradable inventory is actually on the exchanges, rather than on the whim of an individual wallet. For example, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) currently holds over 800,000 BTC on behalf of thousands of investors. The flows through this pipe can rival any handle.

Add to this derivatives positioning and the broader risk/no risk sentiment and you get the real picture.

This guide covers the history of whales, explains the market mechanisms that actually matter, and gives you a quick data checklist so you can read the tape without having to chase every viral “whale just moved” alert.

What counts as a “whale”?

In cryptography, a whale refers to an onchain entity holding at least 1,000 BTC. Many dashboards specifically track the 1,000 BTC to 5,000 BTC range.

An entity is a cluster of addresses controlled by the same owner, not a single wallet. Analytics firms group addresses using heuristics such as shared spending and change detection to ensure that one holder is not counted multiple times in separate deposits.

This distinction is essential because the raw number of addresses in a “rich list” can overestimate concentration. Huge services such as exchanges, ETF custodians and payment processors host thousands of wallets, and marked clusters lend a hand separate them from end investors. Both academic and industry research has long cautioned against drawing conclusions based on address data alone.

Methodologies vary. Some whale indicators include service entities such as exchanges, ETFs or custodial pools, and corporations. Others exclude known stock and mining clusters to focus on the real investor whales.

In this guide, we employ a unit-based convention of ≥1000 BTC and clearly mark where service wallets are included and excluded, so you know exactly what each metric represents.

Did you know? The number of entities holding at least 1,000 BTC recently exceeded 1,670, which is the highest level since the beginning of 2021.

How concentrated is BTC today and who holds it?

Since the launch of US spot ETFs, much of the noticeable Bitcoin supply has moved into custodial pools. IBIT BlackRock alone holds approximately 800,000 BTC, making it the largest known holder. However, it is held on behalf of multiple investors rather than as a single balance.

For all issuers, U.S. ETFs cover the total to hold approximately 1.66 million BTC, approximately 6.4% of the total supply of 21 million. This centralizes execution even though the underlying ownership remains widely dispersed.

Corporations are another essential group. Most recently, MicroStrategy revealed holds approximately 640,000 BTC. Miners, exchanges and unnamed long-term holders make up the remainder of the largest clusters.

Meanwhile, the value of tradable capital on centralized exchanges continues to shrink. In early October 2025, monitored Glassnode balances dropped to a six-year low of approximately 2.83 million BTC. With fewer coins on exchanges, enormous orders tend to result in larger price movements.

Please note that prosperous “top address” lists often inflate concentration because major services support thousands of wallets. Individual-level clustering and labeled portfolios, such as those belonging to ETFs, exchanges and corporations, provide a clearer picture of who actually controls the coins.

Did you know? US spot ETFs currently hold over 1.6 million BTC, which is just over 6% of the total supply held by institutions and funds.

Can whales change the market during the day?

Huge, aggressive orders can dramatically impact prices, especially when the depth of the order book shrinks. During volatile periods, liquidity often disappears and enormous blocks of sales can come through the book with undue impact. This is the basic microstructure of the market.

For this reason, many enormous holders avoid “hitting the book.” They split their orders or employ OTC desks to quietly execute blocks, limiting both their footprint and information leakage. In practice, much of the whales’ activity takes place off-exchange, reducing the noticeable impact of a single wallet in public places.

In different cycles, whales do not always “pump”. Research combining stock and onchain data shows that enormous holders often force sell, especially when smaller investors buy. Their flows may moderate rallies rather than lead them.

The 2025 snapshot fits this pattern: as prices breached $120,000 amid mighty ETF inflows and broad accumulation, “mega-whales” he took it profits on the margin. The intraday direction has often tracked ETF flows and available liquidity to a greater extent than any other whale portfolio.

Did you know? One renowned “OG” whale recently sold thousands of BTC to buy nearly $4 billion worth of Ether (ETH).

What really makes markets turn green or red most days?

Since January 2024, spot ETF flows have become one of Bitcoin’s most reliable daily signals. Sturdy weekly inflows often coincide with gains towards up-to-date highs, while milder or negative prints tend to coincide with days of declines. Combine this with the live flow dashboard to track how US ETFs are performing in each session.

Liquidity on stock exchanges is equally essential. With balances on centralized exchanges standing at around 2.83 million BTC, a six-year low, supply is now harder to trade. Less liquidity means that even routine buying or selling programs penetrate deeper into the order book, amplifying price swings for all types of participants.

Positioning and leverage often drive intraday swings. When financing becomes prosperous or deeply negative and the open interest rate (OI) recovers from a collapse, the path of least resistance can quickly change.

Monitor financing and open investment to assess employee flow. Recently, with approximately 97% of supply in profit and a slight softening in long-term holder distributions, markets have become more sensitive to fresh flows and headlines.

Finally, macro continues to drive the beta cryptocurrency. Dollar trends, US yields and broader risk appetite often go hand in hand with Bitcoin’s daily direction. On days with less data, ranges tend to compress; when a macro heats up, the cryptocurrency tends to follow.

Quick checklist

• ETF Flows: Track yesterday’s net inflows/outflows and total turnover.

• Liquidity: Monitor stock balance trends and order book depth across major platforms.

• Positioning: View heat maps of OI funding and recovery rates post-liquidation.

• Macro tape: Monitor the dollar index, 10-year bond yields and stock market breadth.

Do Whales Still Set the Tone for Bitcoin Today?

Whales may change prices, but they rarely decide how the day will end. When liquidity declines, a single enormous order can push the move further than usual. Most enormous holders now split trades into smaller clips or route them to OTC desks, mitigating the impact seen on the public books.

From 2024, the main driver of the daily rate is spot ETF flows, in addition to the enormous trading volumes passing through these funds. Observing net flows and turnover from the previous day allows you to better understand this trend.

With tradable supply on exchanges sitting near multi-year lows, even a marginal buyer or seller – whether a whale, a market maker or a retail wave – can drive prices higher than normal. Larger holders often sell into strength rather than pumping, which tends to limit gains rather than fuel them.

Macro factors continue to drive much of the activity. Changes in the dollar and US yields are impacting risk appetite, pulling Bitcoin in the same direction.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.