In an October 10 market update, technical analyst Nik Patel (@OstiumLabs) argued that Ethereum is approaching a breakout zone where the next few sessions could determine whether growth resumes or a deeper rest takes place. With ETH spot price around $4,000, Patel anchored his thesis in a tight band of reclaim and invalidation levels on both ETH/USD and ETH/BTC, emphasizing that behavior on the lower time frames must be consistent with the structure on the higher time frames to keep the upside path open.

Key price levels for Ethereum now

On Patel’s ETH/USD weekly chart he said the market “dropped significantly lower for the August open last week but held above the previous weekly low and trendline support,” leading to an internal week that nonetheless closed “slightly below this major turning point.” The pivot is clear: “We want this pivot at $4,093 to recover immediately and not turn into resistance on the lower time frames, otherwise we could see another low hit towards the 2025 open.”

If buyers do indeed force a recovery, Patel expects last week’s action to hold at the quarterly low: “If we do indeed recover $4,093 here, which I expect, we should be at a quarterly low by now, and I would like to see $4,400 turn into support for a move up to all-time highs and beyond.”

He assessed weekly invalidation at $3,700, warning that a close below would make the yearly open the “final support” for the bullish structure; failure to do so risks a “significantly larger drop back to $2,850.” Patel’s base case scenario remained constructive: “return to above $4,093 next week and then close above $4,400 in October, leading to new highs to $5,000 in early November and a very strong month for ETH.”

The daily ETH/USD reading connects this long-term plan with market dynamics and structure. Patel observed a “depletion of momentum to lows” that were followed by a higher low last week – a pattern that now needs to be defended. He wants the sequence to strengthen with a rise above the mid-range and then a higher low above the weekly turning point: “we absolutely want this structure to be protected now, with the price forming a higher top above the mid-range at $4,352 and then another higher low above $4,093 before breaking higher and pushing towards new highs.”

To confirm the impulsive leg, he signaled a break of the trend line, a change of the ATH-anchored VWAP to support and a change of the RSI regime: “If a break of the trend line occurs and price moves ATH VWAP to support with the daily RSI above 50, I expect a very quick move to $4,950, followed by a price break in November.” The daily revocation mirrors the weekly logic: If $4,093 acts as resistance and the market falls below $3,700 and then closes below that, “we are absolutely retesting the yearly open,” he said.

ETH vs. BTC

Against Bitcoin, Patel says the relative pair has likely printed a Q4 low. On the weekly ETH/BTC chart, the price was rejected at trendline resistance, then returned to the yearly open and sustained, closing at the “marginal green” level while incorporating trendline support at the 2025 lows.

“In my opinion, the low for this Q4 pair was formed here,” he wrote, adding that a retest and a break above the falling border in early November would set the stage for a measurable expansion: “acceptance above 0.0417 opens another leg higher to 0.055.” He placed the weekly invalidation at 0.0319.

The ETH/BTC Daily Map refines these signals to actionable levels. The price “made a low between 0.0319 and the yearly open before rebounding strongly and reclaiming 0.036 as support.” Ideally, 0.036 now acts as a stepping stone; if not, Patel allows higher lows “above the 0.0319 level before continuing higher.”

A tactical tip would be a reversal of nearby supply: “If we can reverse 0.0379 here as reclaimed support, this would be promising on the view that a trendline break is imminent, after which I expect 0.0417 to be retaken and price to move higher, with slight resistance above this value at 0.049 before 0.055.” He also identified a convergence band below: “We have support convergence between 0.0293 and 0.0319, so turning this range into resistance would be very bearish for ETH/BTC.”

In summary, Patel’s October 10 plan is based on three timings: ETH/USD needs to quickly recover and defend $4,093; $4,400 needs to be converted from ceiling to floor to clear the runway towards previous highs and a potential $4,950 extension; and ETH/BTC should break above 0.0379 and then 0.0417 to confirm relative strength below any dollar-denominated breakout.

The downside is equally clear: the inability to regain $4,093, the weekly close below $3,700, and the subsequent loss of the yearly open confirm the risk that, in Patel’s words, Ethereum could “spin back down to $2,850.”

At the time of publication, the price of ETH was $3,872.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com