The price of Ethereum (ETH) has increased by 18% since falling below the $1,800 level on February 6, regaining the $2,000 support level. Increasing price volatility and low MVRV Z-score also signal the formation of a local bottom.

Key takeaways:

• Ethereum has realized that volatility on Binance has increased to its highest level since March 2025, indicating a potential recovery.

• Ether’s MVRV Z-Score dropped to the accumulation zone, suggesting that ETH has bottomed out.

• Ether’s multi-year trend line around $1,800-$1,900 provides support.

Ethereum volatility hits 12-month highs

According to CryptoQuant data, Ethereum’s volatility has increased dramatically, suggesting that the market is entering a period of increased activity and powerful depreciation.

Volatility is a metric used to determine how much and how quickly the price of ether changes over a given period.

Related: ETH options are turning bearish as investors prepare for a prolonged decline in the price of Ether

The chart below shows that the realized (30-day) volatility rate on Binance rose sharply on Thursday to 0.97 from 0.37 in mid-January.

The jump in realized volatility to such a high level indicates that “the market has emerged from a period of relative calm and entered a very volatile environment,” CryptoQuant Arab Chain analyst he said in Quicktake analysis by adding:

“Previous experience has shown that such readings often precede a significant upward movement in the Ethereum price.”

The last time such high volatility occurred was between slow March and early April 2025, when the ETH price formed a lower range between $1,500 and $1,700.

The ETH/USD pair then surged 77% to $2,700 in less than 30 days. A similar enhance in Q4 2024 preceded a 74% enhance in the price of Ether.

If history repeats itself, this enhance in volatility could signal the end of the downtrend, setting ETH up for a multi-month rally as volatility normalizes and gains confidence.

MVRV’s Z-Score suggests that Ether’s price has fallen below $1,800

Ether MVRV Z-scoreone of the most popular onchain indicators used to identify market highs and lows, has dropped to the historical accumulation zone (green line in the chart below), strengthening the argument that ETH may have found its bottom.

The last time Ether’s MVRV Z-Score dropped to its current level of around -0.31 was in April 2025, after a 66% price drop. This coincided with a price low of $1,400 and preceded a months-long rally during which the price of ETH surged 258% to an all-time high of $4,950.

This means that from an onchain perspective, Ether is oversold and could continue its ongoing recovery, potentially rising towards liquidity clusters between $2,200 and $2,500 in the near term.

The Ether fractal predicts an “explosive climb” in the ETH price in 2020

Ether’s current technical structure closely mirrors the setup that drove prices higher in 2020-2021.

The monthly chart below suggests that the price is currently maintaining a multi-year trend line similar to the one that supported the price from December 2018 to April 2020.

“Whenever price stays above this rising support trendline, a parabolic rally begins,” as seen in 2020, Trader Tardigrade analyst he said on Thursday in post X, adding:

“Now $ETH is testing the trendline again. If it holds here, history says we’re setting ourselves up for another explosive rally.”

This trendline lies within the support zone at $1,900 and $1,800 where investors recently purchased 2.9 million ETH – Glassnode distribution heat map based on cost can be seen.

As Cointelegraph reports, ETH could continue its rebound to retest the 50-day straightforward moving average (SMA) at $2,540 if bulls manage to push the price above $2,100.