Ethereum (ETH) is holding around $2,900 as improving macro sentiment, renewed whale accumulation and rising inflows into ETFs reinforce expectations for a near-term rebound towards $3,400.

Related reading: Capriole Founder Isn’t Pushing for Bitcoin Despite the Odds – Here’s Why

With the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates now exceeding 80%, investors are setting themselves up for a potential shift in risk appetite that could benefit major cryptocurrencies, especially ETH.

ETH's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: ETHUSD on Tradingview

Fed Pivot Hopes and Institutional Demand Boost Ethereum

Ethereum has traded between $2,700 and $3,300 in recent weeks, but fresh catalysts helped prices stabilize above $2,900.

The biggest factor is macroeconomics. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a December interest rate cut increased from 30% to over 80%. Lower interest rates typically encourage investment in risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Institutional flows reflect this change. US spot Ethereum ETFs saw inflows of $96.67 million on November 24, with BlackRock itself contributing $92.6 million, the first inflow in two weeks

Treasury giant BitMine continues to accumulate aggressively, adding 69,822 ETH (over $200 million) last week and increasing its total holdings to 3.63 million ETH, representing approximately 3% of circulating supply.

At the same time, whale wallets holding 10,000-100,000 ETH accumulated 440,000 ETH in one week, signaling renewed confidence despite broader market caution.

Ethereum (ETH) ready to break out towards $3,400

Despite trading within a 20-day SMA of $3,132, Ether is showing early signs of bullish momentum. The MACD histogram has crossed into positive territory and the RSI is trading near the neutral 50 line, with the possibility of moving higher before reaching overbought levels.

Other indicators reinforce the bullish situation:

• Bollinger Bands: ETH’s position near 0.32 suggests that the price is closer to the lower band, the common bounce zone.
• Volume: Binance’s 24-hour trading volume of approximately $1.27 billion indicates sufficient liquidity to support a breakout.
• ATR: With a daily ATR of $201.62, volatility remains elevated, favoring keen upside moves if momentum picks up.

The first major test remains $3,132. A tidy breakout and two consecutive daily closes above this level would likely trigger algorithmic buying and push ETH towards the $3,400 target within 5-7 days. Moreover, the resistance at the level of $3,658 becomes the next upward target.

Market risks and short-term prospects

While the upward momentum is building, Ether trading in a broad descending channel and the market structure remains unstable. Failure to regain $3,132 anytime soon could push ETH back towards $2,750, with deeper support at $2,623 and a cycle low at $2,659.

Related reading: Bull-bear scenario for XRP that could play out in November

Broader cryptocurrency weakness, negative spot flows or delays in network upgrades could delay a breakout.

However, with rising institutional demand, whale accumulation, and optimism about interest rate cuts, the likelihood of Ethereum testing $3,400 again continues to grow. Confidence is at medium level (65%) as ETH’s path to $3,400 remains viable but requires confirmation from key resistance levels.

Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview