Ethereum is showing noticeable relative strength after regaining the $3,150 level and attempting to break higher, offering a refreshing change in sentiment after weeks of intense selling pressure, fear and uncertainty across the market. As the broader cryptocurrency landscape begins to stabilize, ETH stands out as one of the assets showing early signs of recovery, drawing renewed attention from traders and long-term investors alike.
A key factor supporting this change is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) reading for Ethereum on Binance, which currently stands at around 0.22 while the price is near $3,100.
This level reflects a dainty balance between fear and optimism, indicating that a significant portion of ETH holders are maintaining moderate gains. Importantly, NUPL has not yet entered the “greedy” zone typical of the overdue stages of a bullish cycle, suggesting that the market is not yet overheated.
Instead, Ethereum appears to be moving into a more neutral, constructive phase where investors are cautiously confident but not overly euphoric. This balance is often the basis for a healthier recovery, especially after a deep correction. If momentum continues to augment and NUPL remains stable or trends higher, ETH could set itself up for a stronger upward move in the coming weeks.
NUPL signals a transitional phase of the market
Arab Chain notes that the NUPL Ethereum Index saw significant growth in the June-August period, reaching levels much higher than today and reflecting robust profitability across the network in mid-2025. Investor sentiment was confident at the time, supported by rising prices and improving macro conditions.
However, as Ethereum’s price began to decline steadily from October, unrealized gains began to decline. This pushed the NUPL towards more neutral territory, signaling a shift in sentiment from heightened optimism to a more grounded and cautious stance.
Most importantly, the value of NUPL did not fall into negative territory, which means that the average ETH holder did not suffer unrealized losses. This is an essential signal of market strength. When investors hold profits, they are typically less motivated to sell aggressively at lower prices, which reduces the risk of panic capitulation and helps stabilize price action during corrections.
Taken together, these signals indicate that Ethereum is currently in a transitional phase. The market is neither euphoric nor fearful – rather it is waiting for a decisive catalyst that will define the next trend. As long as NUPL remains above 0.20, Ethereum will maintain a significant level of investor confidence, increasing the likelihood of a rebound should liquidity strengthen or positive fundamental changes emerge.
ETH is rebounding strongly on the weekly chart
Ethereum’s weekly chart shows a robust rebound as the price surges above the $3,150-$3,200 region, reclaiming a critical band of support that turned into resistance during the November sell-off. The long lower wick of last week’s candle confirms robust interest from the buyers around the $2,700-$2,800 zone, an area that has historically played the role of the main demand region during multi-month corrections.
ETH has now regained its 100-week SMA, a key trend indicator, which is currently trading near $2,900, signaling renewed structural stability. The 200-week SMA, sitting comfortably lower, continues to reinforce the long-term uptrend. However, the 50-week SMA, which has flattened and is currently hovering around the $3,350-$3,400 level, represents the next significant resistance level. ETH will need a decisive weekly close above this moving average to confirm a true return to bullish momentum.
The rebound volume is clearly stronger than in previous consolidation phases, suggesting increased participation and growing confidence among market participants. However, the ETH situation is not clear yet. A series of lower highs since the September peak is creating a bearish pattern that must be broken to resume a sustained uptrend.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
