Ethereum price drops 25%, but on-chain data and institutional staking signal in Q4 has recovery potential

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Ethereum’s price fell nearly 25% this quarter, hitting a low of around $3,099 before stabilizing around $3,300 amid overall market weakness and rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Data from Lookonchain revealed that three novel wallets withdrew 4,920 ETH (worth $16.25 million) from Tornado Cash, coinciding with a 13% weekly price decline.

Analysts have linked this pattern to large-scale repositioning by whales, with some addresses previously linked to HEX founder Richard Heart, who reportedly transferred over 162,000 ETH ($619 million) to Tornado Cash earlier this year.

Despite the sale, Cryptocurrency fear and greed index remained at “Extreme Fear” at 21/100, a sentiment level that historically coincides with market lows. Analysts at Santiment observed a keen shift in investor sentiment, noting that bullish comments about ETH outnumbered bearish posts almost three to one.

ETH's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: ETHUSD chart on Tradingview

Institutional staking and inflows into ETFs offer a glimpse of strength

Institutional data paint a more resilient picture. SharpLink, a Nasdaq-listed company, generated $100 million in annual profit by staking Ethereum after raising 859,853 ETH worth $2.9 billion.

The company’s success has sparked a novel “productive ETH” narrative, positioning Ethereum as an income-producing treasury asset rather than a speculative one.

Market strategist Kyle Reidhead described SharpLink’s profit as “a $100 million-plus compound revenue stream that works in all market conditions,” forecasting Ethereum’s staking advantage over Bitcoin’s stagnant balance sheet model.

Network analysts expect similar strategies from companies like Bitmine, JPMorgan and other institutional players following SEC approval ETFs for staking ETH earlier this year.

Meanwhile, U.S. ETH spot ETFs saw an inflow of $12.5 million on November 6, ending a six-day streak of outflows and bringing total assets under management to $21.75 billion, representing about 5.4% of Ethereum’s market value.

Technical indicators suggest a potential rebound in the Ethereum price towards USD 3,900-5,000

From a technical perspective, Ethereum’s price is hovering around the $3,200 to $3,350 support range, a zone that many analysts, including Michaël van de Poppe, call the “prime accumulation area.” Momentum indicators such as RSI (46) and MACD (negative but flattening) suggest bearish exhaustion.

Looking ahead, investors look at upcoming events Face updatescheduled for December 3, 2025, which introduces PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling) to improve data throughput and scalability.

If ETH overcomes the resistance at $3,900, analysts forecast a recovery path towards $5,000 by the end of the year, supported by a decline in supply on exchanges and renewed institutional demand.

As staking returns and ETF inflows strengthen Ethereum’s fundamentals, market participants are increasingly viewing the current correction as a potential springboard to fourth-quarter gains rather than a prolonged downturn.

Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview

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