Ethereum is trading above the $3,200 level as bulls attempt to push the price back towards higher resistance zones, but market sentiment remains volatile. Fear and uncertainty continue to dominate as several analysts warn that the broader trend could continue to point to a potential bear market. However, beneath the volatile price action, key on-chain data reveals developments that could shape Ethereum’s next major phase.
According to the modern one report from CryptoQuant, a historical signal has re-emerged related to the realized price of whales holding over 100,000 ETH. This metric, which tracks the average cost basis of the largest holders, has only been tested a handful of times in the past five years.
Each instance occurred during decisive turning points in the Ethereum macrotrend. Whenever ETH approached or was near this realized price, it signaled either the exhaustion of a deep downtrend or the beginning of a sturdy recovery phase.
Today, Ethereum is once again oscillating near this critical threshold. With analysts divided and sentiment weakening, the whale’s realized price has become one of the most significant indicators to monitor. Whether ETH bounces or breaks could determine the direction of the next major trend cycle.
The price realized by the whale as the threshold defining the cycle
CryptoQuant’s report highlights the importance of Ethereum’s proximity to the actual price of whales holding at least 100,000 ETH. According to the analysis, ETH has only traded very close to this level four times in the last five years.
Two of these cases occurred during the capitulation phase of the 2022 bear market, when selling pressure peaked and long-term confidence was severely tested. The other two occurred this year and highlighted how unusual and cycle-defining the current environment has become.
What makes this metric particularly significant is its historical reliability. Over the last five years, Ethereum has done just that Never quoted below the actual price of these mega whales. This level has consistently acted as a structural floor, signaling areas where the largest and most sophisticated holders are unwilling to sell at a loss. Their behavior often indicates moments of deep undervaluation or macro exhaustion in the market.
Today, the realized price is near the $2,500 range, putting Ethereum within striking distance of the level that has repeatedly separated long-term accumulation zones from a full-scale trend reversal. If ETH stays above this threshold, it will reinforce the view that huge holders still see long-term value – despite fear dominating broader market sentiment.
Ethereum is trying to recover, but it faces major overheads
Ethereum’s daily chart shows that the market is trying to recover but is still confined by significant structural resistance. After bouncing from the sub-$2,900 zone, ETH regained the $3,200 level and is currently trading near $3,238. While this rebound reflects near-term strength, the broader trend remains feeble.
The price faces the 50-day moving average, which has acted as active resistance during the decline from the September high. ETH briefly broke above it but failed to secure a sturdy close, signaling hesitation from buyers.
The 100-day and 200-day moving averages remain well above the current price, confirming that Ethereum is still trading below major trend markers. These moving averages will likely form an upper resistance band between $3,400 and $3,600 – an area where sellers have previously overcome bullish attempts.
Structurally, ETH is making a potentially higher low, but has not yet reached a higher high – this is a necessary condition for confirming a trend reversal. A spotless break above $3,350 would strengthen the bullish momentum. Conversely, a loss of $3,150 threatens to reopen the path towards $3,000 and potentially retest deeper support levels.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
