Fresh fluidity infusion from the American tax account (TGA) creates waves among market observers, and some analysts speculate that this may be a key trigger of another significant Bitcoin movement. While the Federal Reserve continues its quantitative tightening program (QT), the latest injection of TGA cash – amounted to up to $ 842 billion – it caused a debate about whether we are witnessing a insidious version of quantitative alleviation, sometimes referred to as “not QE, QE. “

Fed “Nie QE, QE”

IN post The analyst Tomas (@Tomasonmarkets), made available to X, offered this dynamics: “Nie QE, QE” officially began. This week, liquidity injection began, which could amount to USD 842 billion from the treasury account. Functionally, it is similar to quantitative alleviation, but temporarily. “

The background for this flow of liquidity is the binding debt limit of $ 36 trillion. Without unauthorized debt emissions until the recent debt ceiling agreement is reached, the State Treasury is forced to rely on funds with TGA to cover government obligations. This reduces the TGA balance – 842 billion dollars on Tuesday, February 11 – effectively injecting liquidity to financial markets.

According to Tomas, the “train” of TGA expenditure began seriously on Wednesday, February 12: “From my understanding, the official” induced by a long ceiling “Raddown (TGA) began on Wednesday, February 12 … This train is now in motion and will not stop until The legislators will not reach a new debt ceiling agreement. “

He designs that the first segment of this process will probably cover about $ 600 billion injections between February 12 and April 11. After the April tax season, TGA may be temporarily supplemented, but until a recent debt ceiling agreement is reached, The the Długa ceiling, The the The The the the the the The the the the the The theC of the Długa, The the Cigtak State Treasury probably still spends the existing cash reserves.

While some observers undergo this development as a de facto QE round, Tomas emphasizes that the final effect of the net depends on two critical outflows on liquidity: the federal reserve escorts assets to around $ 55 billion per month, which Tomas expects to continue at least through the next meeting FOMC in March. Over two months translates into an estimated liquidity reduction by $ 110 billion.

Because the State Treasury issues fewer T contacts due to restrictions on the debt ceiling-“negative net emissions”-market funds may have less short-term government securities for purchase. This deficiency may prompt them to park more cash in the reverse facility of Repo Fed, which effectively flows smoothness from a wider market.
Tomas notes: “This can encourage funds on the money market for parking cash in the reverse Fed repository, potentially raising this chart … an increase in repo with refo would be a drainage of liquidity, because the money will leave the markets and to the repositories of the Fed repositor. “

In general, the real scale of the TGA stimulus remains uncertain. Last week, net injections to the system were estimated at $ 50 billion, which may change in the coming weeks, when QT demands and reverse repo.

Another key element of the puzzle is a continuous political deadlock over the ceiling of the debt. Despite the calls for bilateral cooperation, divisions in a narrow republican majority – combined with a broad democratic opposition – complicate the prospects of a quick solution.

House Republicans have recently presented a plan to bind “trillions of dollars” in tax reductions to raise the debt ceiling. However, the fragment of this measure is far from certainty, because deeply conservative members oppose any raise in the debt limit. Earlier increases usually required support between the parties, which indicates a potentially extended distance.

“It comes down to the shoulders of the speaker of Mike Johnson’s house when he tries to gather legislators behind the plan,” Tomas notes, reflecting universal skepticism as to whether sufficient voices can be secured.

Will Bitcoin be beneficial?

In the case of Bitcoins traders, these liquidity flows out and the flows often correlate with a broader appetite at risk – Bitcoin historically observed price movements up during loose monetary policy and liquidity injections. Although the federal reserve has not signaled the immediate retention of QT, the tiny -term TGA cash flood may still be able to raise risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Exactly, how much “not QE, QE” is Bitcoin, it turns out. However, in the case of market participants observing daily net liquidity indicators, the interaction between TGA, QT and Reverse Repo payments becomes a central history. As the start in Washington continues, the bitcoin space will monitor any growth and ponderous down on the Fed – HOP liquidity charts, can simply turn on the switch of the next great Bitcoin breakthrough.

During the Bitcoin press he traded at USD 96 424.

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