For more than a decade, Bitcoin investors have relied on the familiar four-year cycle to navigate bull markets, capitulations, and halving market swings. In 2025, this long-standing roadmap is starting to look old-fashioned, and analysts are looking for a novel framework to understand where Bitcoin (BTC) is headed.

Some argue that institutional capital transforms the market. Others highlight the waning impact of halvings, the rise of artificial intelligence as a competitive investment frontier, or global liquidity trends that no longer follow venerable patterns. Whatever the reason, one thing is clear: Bitcoin doesn’t seem to be moving like it used to.

In this exclusive interview with Cointelegraph, Jeff Park, partner and chief investment officer at ProCap BTC, questions the assumptions of a four-year cycle, arguing that Bitcoin may now be moving into a much shorter, more vigorous two-year cycle.

Park argues that the structure of the Bitcoin market has fundamentally changed because institutional flows operate on different incentives than retail investors.

At the heart of Park’s argument is a provocative idea: shorter cycles could radically change the way investors think about timing, volatility, and Bitcoin’s potential path through 2026.

Park also touches on why some players prefer short-term weakness, how liquidity patterns intersect with the novel cycle and what this change could mean for the next huge move.

Watch full interview with jeff park on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel for a full discussion of the two-year cycle theory and its implications for the future of Bitcoin.