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Bitcoin fell marginally after reaching a modern peak above USD 97,000 on May 2. He withdrew slightly below USD 94,000, which is a 3% decrease to 4% compared to the latest level. Although compact -term price movements are nervous, long -term data in the chain begins to show signs that can affect what will happen next.
The index reading is indicated by the potential early bull market
One indicator, referred to as the Bitcoin Composite V2.0 index, is now standing when reading 0.8. The index combines a price action with blockchain activity and tries to weigh where Bitcoin can go. For the analyst Constantin Kogan, a reading On this scale, he appeared earlier before huge price rallies, such as in 2017 and 2021.
Kogan described how this number will raise to 1.0 and maintains, Bitcoin can start accelerating much faster. The index is not entirely – but it is going in the right direction. One of the most essential elements of the index, “current price ATH”, also began popularity. This suggests that a positive buyers enter the market and faith can grow.
📈 Bitcoin rush in Bitcoin is just starting to build, and the indicators on chains, such as the Bitcoin composite index, signals the beginning of the bull market. The index has already reached 0.8 (80%). Here are three possible scenarios:
🚀 Bullish: BTC can raise to … pic.twitter.com/8bz4vmr2chch
– Constantin Kogan (@Constkogan) May 4, 2025
The target price can reach 175,000 USD, if the shoot is continued
If Bitcoin maintains the rush and drives the composite indicator to more than 1.0, the analysts predict that the price will raise rapidly. The target range given is from USD 150,000 to 175,000. This is a repeated stubborn momentum and past trends.
But if the indicator remains between 0.8 and 1.0, Bitcoin may stop a bit. This means a range related to range, from 90,000 to USD 110,000. Kogan also emphasized the third, less likely route – if the indicator drops below 0.75. Then Bitcoin can turn to 70,000 to USD 85,000.
Data on deliveries show where the buyer entered
The second part of the puzzle comes from UTXO has completed the price distribution The chart, also called the URPD chart. Established by the Checkmate analyst, it is displayed in a place where Bitcoin owners have recently moved their coins. It gives the feeling he bought when – and at what price.
It seems that the huge segment of buyers came from 93,000 to 98,000 USD. This region is currently behaving as a key supply zone. It is a region in which investors have just bought Bitcoin and can keep or sell based on what is happening.
The market is waiting for a clear traffic from the current zone
Bitcoin is in the middle of this range is about USD 94,000. As Checkmate indicates, the next move will depend on whether the price explodes or will be rejected. A robust breakthrough, commanded by a powerful daily candle, can transform the last supply into profit and raise prices. But if the price cannot raise through this area, it can cause a lower level and attract additional sales pressure.
For now, Bitcoin is sitting in waiting mode. Traders and analysts monitor both the sophisticated index and the number of deliveries to determine whether the current collar becomes another leg up – or in the next step down.
A distinguished picture from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView
