In the up-to-date investor note published on January 29, 2025, Matt Hougan, director of the investment in Bitwa, asked if the historic four -year Bitcoin market cycle could finally end. His reasoning is rooted in seismic changes in US policy towards cryptocurrencies, emphasized by the recent executive ordinance of President Trump aimed at strengthening the leadership of the nation in digital assets.

Can 2026 break the trend of Bitcoin Bears?

Hougan note It begins with the explanation of the so -called “four -year cycle”, in which Bitcoin usually saw three years of significant benefits and then withdrawal. He explains that this cycle reflects wider boom patterns in conventional markets: “The four-year cycle in cryptography is guided by the same forces that drive wider cycles of growth and recession in the general economy,” he said.

These expanses, driven by technological breakthroughs or increased interest in investors, often lead to excessive level, sometimes causing fraud or burden in the industry. Ultimately, something “breaks” and launches market correction – such as the collapse of Mt. GOX 2014 or SEC repression on ICO.

Hougan describes the current cryptocurrency increases as a “mainstream cycle”, leaving the “massive Deleverging” in 2022, arose by failures such as FTX, three capital shots and others. According to him, the last phase of Bull started in March 2023, when Grayskale convincingly “won the opening argument” in its legal challenge against SEC over the ETF Bitcoin point.

“Bitcoin traded for USD 22 218, when Grayscale installed his argument. Today it trades for USD 102,674. The mainstream era has come. “After approval and launched in January 2024, ETF Bitcoin Bitcoin increased, additionally strengthening the acceptance of Bitcoin among both retail and institutional players.

The most striking element of Hougana is the study of the executive order from last week issued by President Trump. The Order not only recognized the development of the American digital asset ecosystem as a “national priority”, but also launched clearer regulatory frames for Crypto.

“Last week, President Trump issued an executive order, which was so stubbornly stubborn for space that he was wondering me,” Hougan wrote, noticing how the document presents the plans of potential “national cryptographic campaigns” and encourages banks and financial institutions for the purpose accelerating their adoption of digital assets.

In combination with a more warm SEC position, Hougan believes that these funds can release trillions in up-to-date investments in the coming years, significantly exceeding hundreds of billions, which was already to generate the market based on ETF.

Hougana’s analysis admits that Bitcoin historically followed the pattern of the final withdrawal after violent runes. But along with the Behemotes from Wall Street and the main banks, preparing to integrate crypto at each level, there are more and more possibilities that the market may not meet with the conventional immersion in 2026: “If it is only next year we feel this impact, or really Will we have a new “Crypto Winter” in 2026? “He said. “If Larry Fink, general director of Blackrock, calls Bitcoin worth $ 700,000, will we really see 70% withdrawal?”

While he admits that the lever is still being built in the system-stretching the raise in loan programs supported by bitcoins, derivatives and products from the stock market turnover-also deals with an increasingly diverse pool of cryptographic investors. He claims that this diversity can weaken sedate payments. “My guess is that we haven’t completely overcome the four -year cycle. The lever will be built as the bull market is built. Excess will appear. Bad actors will appear. And at some point there may be a edged withdrawal when the market exceeds the skis – Hougan argued.

However, Hougan expects every future market correction to be “shorter and shallower” than previous cycles. Because industry infrastructure is currently much more solid and mainstream participants treating crypto as a legitimate asset class, a dramatic bear, similar to Infinsu from 2014 or 2018, may be less likely. “For now, this is a full couple ahead of us,” he concluded. “The cryptographic train leaves the station.”

During the BTC press it traded at USD 105,275.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com