Ether (ETH) is showing a familiar macroeconomic setup that has preceded a major rally in 2021. One analyst pointed to a repeating sequence linking global liquidity, U.S. small-cap stocks and the price of Ether, suggesting a similar impact could occur with the altcoin.

Key takeaways:

• Ether surged 226% in 2021 after reaching a key global liquidity threshold.

• ETH accumulation addresses show a rising real price near $2,700, strengthening structural support.

The global liquidity-driven setup reflects the 2021 ETH breakout

Sykodelic cryptocurrency analyst highlighted a repeating pattern linking global liquidity, the Russell 2000 Index and a potential Ether breakout.

The sequence consists of three stages: a breakout in global liquidity, followed by a breakout in the Russell 2000, and then a delayed breakout in Ether. The same order appeared again in the current monthly chart.

Sycodelic noted that global liquidity has already begun, followed by the Russell 2000. Ether has historically lagged this move, typically breaking out a few weeks later.

In 2021, ETH began its main rally approximately 119 days after Russell’s breakout was confirmed. In this sense, ETH may show a breakout in March 2026.

The monthly candle on Russell also closely matches the previous cycle, suggesting a similar risk regime. The last time these metrics matched, Ether’s value increased 226% from March 2021 to November 2021.

This supports the view that liquidity conditions, rather than short-term technical indicators, can determine the long-term trend for high-beta assets like ETH.

Related: ETH Funding Rate Turns Negative, But Will Ether Bulls Take the Bait?

Russell 2000 leadership support and ETH accumulation

On X Max, the CEO of BecauseBitcoin, excellent that the Russell 2000 has historically led Ether into price discovery phases.

With the Russell 2000 hitting a fresh all-time high of 2,738 on Thursday, the analyst said such leadership could once again support ETH’s bullish expansion in the coming weeks if correlations hold.

Onchain data also shows continued accumulation. CryptoQuanta data indicates that the realized price of ETH accumulation addresses is increasing and is currently close to $2,720.

The realized price of accumulator addresses has historically provided robust support to long-term holders and has not been broken during prior drawdowns. The closeness of the realized price to the spot suggests that accumulation remains busy, even during volatility.

If ETH visits this zone again, analysts estimate that the decline could be circumscribed to around 7%, implying a potential local low near $2,720. The level also coincides with external liquidity zones, which increases the likelihood of a trend reaction if tested.

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