Possible drop in SOL price to $75 as DEX volumes decline

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Key takeaways:

  • Solana outperforms Ethereum in high-yield DApps, providing basic protection against recent price declines.

  • Ethereum’s growing dominance in Layer 2 poses a challenge for SOL as investors monitor the critical $80 support level for a retest.

Solana’s native token, SOL (SOL), saw an 11% correction after being rejected at $93 last Wednesday. Over the past week, SOL has lagged the broader cryptocurrency market, repeatedly testing the $80 support level. Solana’s network fees have also fallen over the past two months, leaving investors concerned about a potential retest of the $75 level.

Total cryptocurrency capitalization (orange, left) vs. SOL/USD (green, right). Source: TradingView

The total value locked (TVL) on Solana was $6.3 billion, although the gap remains vast compared to Ethereum’s $54.1 billion. However, over the last 30 days, Solana has accumulated 80% more network fees than its main competitor. This difference is largely due to Ethereum’s incentives for Layer 2 rollups, which operate transient blocks of data to reduce costs.

Solana network fees (left) vs DEX volumes (right), USD. source: DefiLlama

Solana’s network fees dropped to $18.5 million in March, down 42% from January’s $30 million. Most of this decline is due to lower activity in decentralized currency exchange (DEX) volumes. Despite maintaining its leadership position in absolute terms, Solana DEX volume fell to $55.5 billion, its lowest level since September 2024, according to DefiLlama data.

Blockchains ranked by 30-day DEX, USD volumes. source: DefiLlama

By comparison, Ethereum DEX volume was $41 billion in March, down 23% from two months earlier. More importantly, after the aggregation of Ethereum’s Layer 2 blockchains such as Base, Arbitrum, Polygon, and Optimism, Ethereum’s DEX market share increased to 42% in March from 33% in January. Solana’s dominance is gradually being challenged, which partially explains the current SOL bear dynamics.

Solana DApps revenue could solidify SOL’s $80 support level

While Solana’s DEX volume is sinking, no other network can match the number of DApps earning at least $1 million in 30 days. This data provides a powerful incentive for developers to join Solana, creating opportunities for user feedback through protocols such as Pump, Helium Network, and ORE Protocol. As protocol revenues attract investor attention, a fit ecosystem remains extremely significant to SOL’s profits.

Related: Solana puts Mastercard and Western Union on recent development platform

Solana DApps 30-day revenue, USD. source: DefiLlama

Solana leads the way with 13 DApps that have brought in at least $1 million in revenue in the last 30 days. For comparison, runner-up Ethereum had 11 DApps, while BNB Chain and Base had a total of 4 DApps, each with monthly revenues of $1 million or more. So there is little indication that the SOL price will need to retest $75 solely due to lower network fees resulting from tender DEX volumes.

DEX activity is a major driver of network fees, but the sustainability of protocols in the Solana ecosystem shows that investors have no intention of abandoning SOL.

This article was created in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendation. All investments and transactions involve risk; Readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and is not liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this content.

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