Key results:

• ETF ETF has opened access, but the flows remain cyclical.

• Sola water installation is set: CME Futures are live, with options planned for October 13 (expecting approval).

• General SEC standards now allow faster ECtty offers at points outside BTC and ETH.

• In order for Sol to surpass ETH, it will require lasting works, tight protection, real exploit of onchain and a continuous proportion of the programmer.

It is true that Ether (ETH) already has the most critical start in the Rifle Fund race (ETF): Spot Ether ETF began trading on July 23, 2024, attracting about $ 107 million in net influx on the first day and opening the main path to investors through brokers and retirement accounts.

However, the Solan (SOL) market infrastructure is catching up. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) introduced Solana Futures on March 17, 2025, with options planned for October 13.

In September 2025, the American Commission for Securities and Exchange adopted “General List Standards” that improved how to replace trade products (ETP), potentially expanding the gate outside Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether.

In addition, apart from the USA, SOL is already trading adjustable investment packaging through 21 Europe and 3IQ in Canada.

With this access, the question is whether the American ETF can supply lasting demand, which allows you to soothe the ether in terms of both price and basics.

Before the fight, let’s set the context.

What changed ETFs and what they did not do

Spot Ether ETFS began trading in the USA on July 23, 2024 on the first day recorded About $ 1 billion of trading volume and about $ 107 million net inflow, opening the main channel for investors, such as registered investment advisers (RIA) and institutions. However, it still summed up the ETF Bitcoin debut scale in January.

Since then, the flows have been cyclical. In mid -2025, ETH experienced the periods of net creation interrupted by drains. At the end of August and half of September 2025, the reports showed the renovated strength, with many weeks of influx to ether products that raised total cryptocurrency assets in management (AUM). In compact, ETFS has improved access, but did not eliminate market cycles.

Sometimes in 2025 the ether surpassed many cryptographic assets with high capitalization, supported by the constant ETF demand and evident institutional and tax accumulation. This pattern suggests that although ETFs do not change the basic bases of the network, they can affect which resources conduct during capital rotation phases.

One selection of the project still matters: ETF from the USA launched without winding, limiting their income potential compared to direct maintenance of native ETH. SEC actively reviews the proposals enabling staking, but since October 2025 has delayed the decisions of many issuers. If the rate is allowed-partially-it can change the compromises between ETF Holdings and direct property.

Do you know? Exchange in the USA publish an indicative value of net assets (InV) about 15 seconds, enabling traders to check where ETF should be in the endocut.

Solana Today: Application, growth and risk

In the second quarter of 2025, Solana generated over 271 million dollars revenues from the network, which means its third quarter of the chain of all layers 1 (L1) and layers 2 (L2). In June, the data showed that Solana suited the combined monthly busy addresses of all other main L1 and L2 – forceful exploit intensity indicators.

In January 2025, Solana processed $ 59.2 billion in Stablecoin transfers (P2P), a rapid reflection from minima at the end of 2024. USD delivery in Solan is about USD 9.35 billion, while the total supply network Stablecoin above double double than doubles doubles.

Despite this, Ethereum still carried most of the value raised by Stablecouins up to a year 60% from mid-20125-what shows that salted profits are significant, but they are not dominant yet.

Costs and speed remain crucial: sub-charges, 400 miliose seconds of blocks and high bandwidth have meant that Solana became a hub for decentralized exchange (DEX) and constant activity of time-term contracts-and central boom Memecoin from 2025 speculative.

Two structural risks are worth viewing.

• Reliability: The five -hour failure on February 6, 2024 required a coordinated restart and client’s patches (V1.17.20).

• Regulation: Sec complaints have passed us dismissed Solana as unregistered security – characteristics of the Disputes Foundation Foundation. The results in this area remain very dependent on politics.

Do you know? CME Daily, monthly and quarterly expiry of the SOL optionExtending the security menu for ETF market producers.

Which would probably change the ETF of the USA

1. Access and flows: The approval has opened SOL to the main brokerage and pension channels used by registered investment advisers (RIA). This reduces operational friction for allocators and expands the base of buyers beyond cryptocurrency places.

2. Market and security: These derivative instruments give authorized participants (APS) and market creators tools to protect and redeem, as well as operate in basic or relative transactions. These mechanics assist maintain ETF prices close to their NAV and support the liquidity of one day.

3. Adjusting Runka: “General record standards” SEC broaden the path outside BTC and ETH if the sponsors satisfy the rules.

4. EX-US demand signals: Already ETF 3IQ Solana Staking 3iQ (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (SIX: ASOL) show that regulated investment packaging for Solana can attract investors’ interest.

Do you know? In Europe, cryptocurrencies cannot be included in the enterprises of collective investments in ETF for transferable securities (UCITS), so issuers exploit the ETP. That is why “ETP” appears on six and London Stock Exchange (LSE).

Can Sol exceed ETH?

Bull case (from six to 12 months after approval)

Timely meeting ETF with forceful early net works can overtake the ether after complete returns.

Two key levers:

1. Wider access: Rias and brokerage are gaining exhibition as part of novel general list standards.

2. Improved market mechanics: High spots and higher capacity as APS protection via Futures CME Solana and options on the list.

Basic case

Even if ETF SOL starts strongly, flows can return to tracking the general risk appetite. The ether maintains a structural institutional advantage – thanks to a longer history, deeper knowledge of the Alocator and an established ecosystem. Weekly fluctuations in funds in cryptography reflect how relative performance can be rather uncertain, not definitely tilted towards SOL.

Bear

Employed questions or eligibility within American SEC RAM may suppress expectations. Alternatively, liquidity can soften, and APS can keep smaller books despite the availability of derivatives, limiting creations. In this scenario, Solana achieved worse ether results, which already uses a more mature schedule.

It is also worth noting that some regulatory bodies have expressed concerns about reduced control of cases in the case of general standards of recording, increasing the uncertainty of politics for resources outside of bitcoins and ether.

What to have an eye on

If the American point of ETF is approved, what will happen next.

The key signals to watch are basic. Do creations and redemption show persistent demand? Does CME open interest and activity option deepens liquidity? Are the onchain indicators such as busy users, revenues from fees, STECLECOIN settlement and growth of developers do not go beyond speculative explosions? If these needles move together, the chances of pouring the Eth of Zolny rise rapidly.

ETF Solana would remove a sedate bottleneck of access and arrive with a stronger market infrastructure than previous cycles. However, Ether has already proved that he can attract billions via ETFS during anchoring an institutional conversation.

ETH remains a reference point, and its flows – although cyclical – show its remaining power. Whether Solana really exceeds the results will depend less on the noise, and more on whether ETF influences translate into a eternal onchain reception.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and commercial movement involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.