Key results:

• ETF ETFs have opened up access, but flows remain cyclical.

• Sola Plumbing Sets: CME Futures are live, with options scheduled for October 13 (pending approval).

• The SEC’s general standards now allow for faster ETP offerings at point points beyond BTC and ETH.

• For Sol to outperform ETH will require sustainable creations, tight security, true onchain apply, and constant developer momentum.

It’s true that Ether (ETH) already has the most crucial start in the trading fund (ETF) race: The Spot Ether ETF began trading on July 23, 2024, attracting approximately $107 million in net inflows on the first day and opening a major path for investors through brokerages and retirement accounts.

However, Solana’s (Sol) market infrastructure is catching up. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched Solana Futures on March 17, 2025, with options scheduled for October 13.

In September 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission adopted “general listing standards” that streamlined how exchanges can exchange commodity trading products (ETPs), potentially expanding the gateway beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and ether.

Additionally, outside the US, SOL already trades in regulated investment packaging through 21 Europe and 3IQ in Canada.

With this access, the question now is whether the U.S. ETF can fuel the sustained demand that allows Solana to outperform ether on both price and fundamentals.

Before the fight, let’s set some context.

What ETFs have changed and what they haven’t done

Spot Ether ETFS began trading in the US on July 23, 2024 on day one recorded Approximately $1 billion in trading volume and approximately $107 million in net inflows, opening a primary channel for investors such as Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) and institutions. However, it still summed up the scale of the Bitcoin ETF debut in January.

Since then, flows have been cyclical. In mid-2025, ETH experienced periods of net creation punctuated by outflows. In slow August and mid-September 2025, reports showed renewed strength, with multi-week inflows into ether products lifting total cryptocurrency assets under management (AUM). In brief, ETFS improved access but did not eliminate market cycles.

Ether has outperformed many large-cap crypto assets at times in 2025, backed by steady ETF demand and perceptible institutional and treasury accumulation. This pattern suggests that while ETFs do not change the underlying fundamentals of the network, they may influence which stocks lead during capital rotation phases.

One design choice still matters: a U.S. ETF launched without windup, limiting their income potential compared to directly holding native ETH. The SEC is actively reviewing proposals to enable staking, but has delayed decisions for many issuers as of October 2025. If stake is allowed – even partially – it could change the trade-offs between ETF Holdings and direct ownership.

Do you know? US exchanges publish the indicative net asset value (INAV) around 15 seconds, allowing traders to see where the ETF should be intraday.

Solana Today: Application, Growth and Risk

In Q2 2025, Solana generated over $271 million in network revenue, marking its third consecutive quarter leading all Layer 1 (L1) and Layer 2 (L2) chains. In June, data showed that Solana matched the combined monthly busy addresses of all other major L1s and L2s – powerful indicators of usage intensity.

In January 2025, Solana processed $59.2 billion in Stablecoin (P2P) transfers, a pointed rebound from the lows in slow 2024. Solana’s USD supply is approximately $9.35 billion, while the total network supply of Stablecoin over double double over double has doubled over 2025.

Despite this, Ethereum still carried most of the value moved by Stablecoins for the year – around 60% since mid-20125 – which shows that Solana’s gains are significant, but not yet dominant.

Cost and speed remain key: subcentric fees, 400-millisecond block times, and high throughput have made Solana a hub for decentralized exchange (DEX) and perpetual futures activity—and the central memecoin boom of the 2025s. This volume supports liquidity, but also concentrates flows into segments speculative.

There are two structural risks worth watching.

• Reliability: A five-hour outage on February 6, 2024 required a coordinated reboot and client patch (v1.17.20).

• Regulation: They passed us SEC Complaints canceled Solana as unregistered security – characteristics of Foundation disputes. Performance in this area remains highly policy dependent.

Do you know? CME Daily, monthly and quarterly SOL expiration plansexpanding the hedging menu for ETF market producers.

What the USA ETF would likely change

1. Access and flows: The approval opened the sol up to the major brokerage and pension channels used by registered investment advisors (RIAs). This reduces operational friction for allocators and expands the buyer base beyond cryptocurrency venues.

2. Market and security: These derivatives give authorized participants (APS) and market makers the tools to hedge creation and redemptions, as well as operate in underlying or relative trading. These mechanics support keep ETF prices close to their NAV and support intraday liquidity.

3. Regulating tube: The SEC’s “general listing standards” expand the path beyond BTC and ETH if sponsors satisfy the rules.

4. Ex-USA Demand Signals: Already the 3IQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: Solq) and Europe’s 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (Six: ASOL) show that regulated investment packaging for Solana can attract investor interest.

Do you know? In Europe, cryptocurrencies cannot be included in collective investment in transferable securities (UCITS) ventures, so issuers apply ETPs. This is why ‘ETP’ appears on the sixes and the London Stock Exchange (LSE).

Can Sol outperform ETH?

Bull case (six to 12 months after approval)

A timely ETF meeting with powerful net early works could outperform Ether on total returns.

Two key levers:

1. Wider access: RIAS and brokerages gain exposure under the recent general listing standards.

2. Improved market mechanics: High spreads and higher capacity as APS hedge via CME Solana futures and listed options.

Base case

Even if the SOL ETF launches strongly, flows could return to tracking overall risk appetite. Ether retains a structural institutional advantage – thanks to a longer history, deeper allocator knowledge and an established ecosystem. The weekly fluctuations in crypto fund flow reflect how relative performance can be uncertain rather than decisively tilted towards SOL.

The bear case

Employment questions or eligibility under the US SEC framework may dampen expectations. Alternatively, liquidity may soften and APS may run smaller books despite the availability of derivatives, limiting creations. In this scenario, Solana underperformed ether, which already benefits from a more mature decay.

It is also worth noting that some regulators have expressed concerns about reduced scrutiny of affairs for general listing standards, increasing policy uncertainty for assets beyond bitcoin and ether.

What to keep an eye on

If the U.S. ETF is approved, the real story may be what comes next.

The key signals to watch are uncomplicated. Do creations and redemptions show persistent demand? Does CME open up interest and activity options and deepen liquidity? Are onchain metrics such as busy users, fee revenue, StableCoin settlement, and developer growth expected to go beyond speculative blowouts? If these needles move together, the chances of free ETH being flown skyrocket.

The Solana ETF would remove a major access bottleneck and arrive with a stronger market infrastructure than previous cycles. However, Ether has already proven it can attract billions via ETFS while anchoring the institutional conversation.

ETH remains the benchmark and its flows – although cyclical – show its remaining power. Whether Solana truly outperforms will depend less on hype and more on whether ETF inflows translate into sustained onchain adoption.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.