Veteran cryptographic analyst, Bob Lukas, provided the Bitcoins update suggesting that the resource can enter the “Perfect Storm” phase in a four -year cycle. But in a turn, which is contrary to the time-honored model of the cycle, Lukas now sees the possibility of delayed blowing up at the beginning of 2026 and introduces the perspective of a occasional structure of a double cycle.

In its last part of the four -year journey published On June 26, Lookas confirms that the current bitcoin cycle – which began with the low level of November 2022 – remains structurally intact and approaches the climax. “This is certainly the most stubborn phase of the four -year cycle,” says Lukas. “We are now in a sense on the verge of what was traditionally the beginning or phase of blowing the cycle.”

Bitcoin Blow -off delayed?

What separates this cycle, according to a look, is a unique combination of heating maturation and coincidence of macro, institutional and regulatory forces. They include further influence of ETF, adoption of the corporate treasury and a radical change in politics within the Trump administration, including what he expects, may be the vocation of the Pro-Crypto Fed. Together, these forces create something that he calls a “perfect storm” for price expansion.

Lookas is cautious in providing difficult price goals, but recognizes the doubling of the effect that could send Bitcoin from the current range of nearly USD 110,000 to up to up to USD 150,000-170,000 in the tiny period. Historically, such phases saw double bitcoins within a few months after violation of up-to-date ups. “Bitcoin can see a breakthrough almost twice in a very short time,” he says, pointing to the earlier legs of the cycle in which Bitcoin increased from USD 25,000 to USD 75,000 or USD 50,000 to $ 100 in five months of windows.

However, what means that this latest report is particularly noteworthy is the introduction of a more intricate structure by a look, which he calls “blowing a double cycle”. He describes this as a combination of two neighboring four-year-olds-conceptive peaks, which can delay the market until February or March 2026, far beyond the time-honored 35-month-old cycle peak window.

“If we still had an extension from six to seven months to the summit … it would even lead us to the peak of February or March,” explains Lookas. This scenario, although still in a wider cyclical rhythm, would mean 39–41 months up, not typical 33-35 months. “I think it’s time … 15-16 years for Bitcoin adoption,” he notes, referring to ARC from early believers to deep institutional penetration.

Implications are significant. A delayed peak can mean a much shorter corrective phase – or even the appearance of a second explosive rally with the start of the next cycle, creating what Lookas describes as the illusion of one extended supercyc. “In this cycle there will still be significant growth potential,” he says, warning that many may be surprised. “You don’t want to be surprised.”

BTC price goals

Lookas also refers to a broader image of sentiment, noting that a typical mania – one that meant the peaks in 2017 and at the end of 2021 – has not yet materialized. “We didn’t see this kind of explosion, an absolute extreme sentiment that you usually saw at the top,” he says. He considers this to be further proof that the last phase is still ahead of us.

As for the price of Supercycle, Lukas wonders: “I see numbers on the quarter of a million. I also see a few really crazy numbers when you see earlier manias and bubbles in different asset classes, […] View of the 5x, 6x, 7x movement, hence in a large mania in 2 years, it is not really a stretch. Even from the point of view of market capitalization, this is not stretching, seeing where the gold is already heading through the level of $ 20 trillion and far away. “

Although he emphasizes that these ideas are probabilistic, not forecasts, Lukas warns against long -term consequences if his diploma thesis appears. The huge influx of institutional capital, sovereign percentage and retail mania can ultimately cause the first real secular Bitcoin market, one not measured for months, but for years. “If you consider running a mania, in which so many tax companies and traditional flows are connected and the peak … The unwinding process lasts much longer.”

For now, the model portfolio of Lookasa remains partly in cash after cutting some items near the latest ups, reflecting the conservative approach adapted to the protection of capital. Despite this, he admits that younger or more resistant to risk investors can perceive this moment as the final accumulation window before starting the next phase. “This movie is very, very stubborn, right?” He is kidding.

During the BTC press it traded at USD 107 317.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com