The risk of recession and macro uncertainty are currently again at the center of market discourse, with Bitcoin to fall -20% in relation to the peak. However, the macro analyst Tomas (@Tomasonmarkets) claims that a wider economic background is not as tragic as some headlines suggest, although some data sets indicated a weaker raise in early 2025.

“Doesn’t look too recession for me?” Tomas wrote in the last last post WX, they will repeat skepticism that he has kept for months. He pointed to specific indicators that began to move in February, but began to stabilize. According to its analysis, the growth in the USA now connects various measures of economic growth in real time-“have fallen throughout February, but they equalize for three weeks.” He also appealed to the Citi Economic Surprise Index (Cesi), which follows how real economic data compare to consensus forecasts. From January, Cesi has slowed down, which suggests that the release of data has become below expectations, but in recent weeks it has become in recent weeks.

“Falling cesi = data below expectations, growing cesi = data on the above expectations,” explained Tomas, emphasizing the importance of the market mood index. The result is that while the markets grew more and more defensively in the early year, these indicators do not deteriorate at the pace observed at the beginning of 2025.

Why Bitcoin Mirrors Summer 2024

Then Tomas drew attention to the similarities between the current environment and the two significant previous episodes: the turbulence of the 2024 and the route at the end of 2018 he emphasized that in each case the global markets encountered a edged withdrawal from what he called “growth/recession”, combined with other exogenous pressure.

“For me, the last two cases, which are most similar to this day in terms of price, as well as the background of macro is the summer of 2024 and at the end of 2018.” – he wrote. In the summer of 2024, concerns about growth plus the universal Jen transferring commercial relaxation contributed to 10% of the capital market. At the end of 2018, the escalation trade battle during the first tariff movements from Trump’s time similarly caused an initial correction of shares by about 10%, ultimately deepening to another 15% withdrawal.

Now, when the stock markets have recently suffered about 10% of the peak inheritance, Tomas sees the clear echoes of these historical moments. He noticed that such similarities extend to Bitcoin, which fell by about 30% 2024 and 54% at the end of 2018 – to 30% of the slide took place, which survived this time. He stated that the question is which path ahead of us: does the market follow the relatively concluded correction in the summer of 2024, or will it be spiral in a more painful chain of losses similar to the extended sales from the end of 2018?

“So how?” Tomas asked, emphasizing the uncertain moment when both cryptographic assets and actions stand. His attitude is prompted to expect a script more similar to the summer of 2024 than to the hustle and bustle of 2018. His words: “I am still in the camp that the tariffs will not be as bad as many expects – I have been here for months”, in his opinion the point of view also helps explain the somewhat surprising resistance in risk resources. He suggested that “some of the sounds in the last few days potentially indicate this result, which is why the risk assets have probably jumped today”, although he stopped demanding the final resolution.

According to Tomas, several factors strengthens the case that today’s landscape is in line with the summer of 2024 than at the end of 2018, one of them is recently alleviating the financial conditions that have tightened earlier this year, but has been moderated since then. Another is noteworthy weakening of the American dollar in recent weeks, which is a clear contrast with its erection in 2018, which intensified the pressure on global resources.

Tomas added that most of the leading indicators still support the further expansion of the business cycle, an attitude, which he thinks is less reflecting spasm signals, which they rattled investors almost seven years ago. He noticed that another contributing element is a generally favorable seasonal pattern for American action indicators, which often affect the faint February and find stronger grounds until mid -March. Finally, tight credit distribution – still below their ups noticeable in August 2024 – a point on stable credit markets that do not seem to be valued in sedate economic suffering.

In addition to the issue of macro signals, Tomas openly granted fatigue with the relationship between discussion about economic policy catalysts. “To be honest, I’m really bored with the whole tariff conversation,” he wrote, reminding observers that on April 2 he remains crucial for clarity. “On April 2,” Tariff Liberation Day “will probably play a big role in deciding,” he concluded.

During the Bitcoin press he traded at USD 86,557.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com