During a series of exchanges on Platform X, Adam Back, CEO of blockchain technology company Blockstream, predicted that the price of bitcoin could exceed $1 million if the United States creates a strategic bitcoin reserve (SBR) under President-elect Donald Trump. “If a strategic bitcoin reserve is created in the U.S., get ready for a 7-digit bitcoin amount. This cycle. The market is skeptical about significant sequels for now, so it’s not priced in at all,” Back said.

if a strategic bitcoin reserve is created in the US, get ready for a 7-digit bitcoin amount. this cycle. the market is skeptical about significant sequels for now, so it’s not valued at all.

— Adam Powrot (@adam3us) November 18, 2024

The bold forecast sparked discussions among industry experts and enthusiasts. James Van Straten, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, replied: “7 figures? I don’t think I’m mentally prepared for 6. Acknowledging the market’s doubts, Back replied: “That’s a pretty big ‘if’ though.” At least if we draw conclusions from the market price, the market believes that the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the US is unlikely. If this becomes a reality, I expect a quick re-pricing.”

Can Bitcoin Grow to $1 Million per Coin?

The conversation highlighted market skepticism about the feasibility of the U.S. government amassing such significant Bitcoin reserves. Van Straten, like other experts, suggested that the nation could consider “getting ahead” of this potential scenario, to which Back noted: “There is no good way to buy 1 million BTC other than very, very quietly. Even when it leaks, the whole world gets FOMO and a price teleport occurs.

Portal, an unsupervised interoperability protocol for Bitcoin, weighed in on the discussion via X: “If the United States launches such a protocol, the rest of the world will certainly start to follow suit.” This sentiment underscores the potential global ripple effect of the US-initiated SBR on Bitcoin adoption and valuation.

X user AndyLiteMan (@LiteAndy) also expressed skepticism, criticizing Back’s astronomical predictions: “As exciting as it would be, it won’t happen. We hear it every cycle.” Back maintained his stance, emphasizing the conditional nature of his forecast: “I said ‘if’ and this market doesn’t believe it yet.”

Adding another layer to the developing narrative, Dennis Porter, CEO and founder of the Satoshi Act Fund – a US non-profit organization advocating for Bitcoin adoption – stated on November 18 that Donald Trump’s team is considering issuing an executive order establishing a national SBR, as Bitcoinist reported. “I heard that Trump’s team is considering issuing an executive order for a national ‘strategic bitcoin reserve’ to defeat any state from passing this bill first,” Porter revealed via X. “I can confirm that the US Senate offices are supportive of this plan. The game for President Trump. The race is on.”

Porter, who has been deeply involved in legislative efforts to adopt Bitcoin, noted that his information comes from “private conversations with people familiar” with the matter and his direct involvement in promoting SBR language in the United States and internationally.

In particular, it is vital to distinguish between the proposals discussed. Porter’s reference to Trump’s considerations is to the executive order establishing a national SBR. This contrasts with Trump’s previous suggestion at the Bitcoin 2024 conference to create a strategic reserve of Bitcoin by keeping all “seized coins” obtained through law enforcement actions.

Additionally, Republican senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced the Bitcoin Act, which proposes the US government to purchase 1 million BTC over five years, allocating 200,000 BTC per year. Referring to this legislative initiative, Back commented on a screenshot of Polymarket’s forecast market showing a 36% chance on the question “Will Trump Create a National Bitcoin Reserve?” He explained: “IMO is bullish and depends on what they mean. “‘Ban on the sale of confiscated coins’ is very different from Senator Lummis’ SBR bill mandating the purchase of 1 million BTC.”

The latter could cause the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket. Back emphasized the logistical challenges of such a significant acquisition: “There is no good way to buy 1 million BTC other than very, very quietly. Even when it leaks, the whole world gets FOMO and a price teleport occurs.

At the time of publication, the BTC price was $92,329.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com