Tony “The Bull” Severino, a well -followed cryptographic analyst, recently started to the Social Media platform X to share the detailed division of Bitcoin historical behavior. The analysis uses a cyclical lens that many in the cryptographic community (both bulls and bears) agrees significant significance.

In particular, Tony Severino focuses on the concept of four -year Bitcoin cycles and about how the troughs and comb consistently mean the periods of the greatest possibility and the greatest risk of investing in Bitcoin. This analysis is in the airy of bitcoins Last price correction below $ 90,000 in March.

Cycles define sentiment: from the corridor of possibilities to the risks

Severino The analysis starts with The basic belief divided in the cryptocurrency industry. It has been widely convinced that Bitcoin works in clearly defined cycles, usually lasting about four years, mainly in relation to cycles by half. His technical perspectives are based on the Bitcoin cycle indicator on the monthly fleeting chart of the candlestick, which reaches in 2013.

As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin has gone through four final cycles in its history. He explains that these cycles should be viewed from the “trough to the trough”. The troughs are the darkest moments on the market, but they are also a point of maximum financial possibilities.

As these cycles progress, bitcoins undergoes during periods of increasing optimism, ultimately reaching what the analyst calls the “cyclical comb”. These combs, highlighted in red on its chart, are periods in which Bitcoin reached maximum financial risk. This is transferred in subsequent price actions, and the price of Bitcoins has been supplemented right after the passage of each cyclical comb.

Bitcoin passed through the coat of arms in the current market cycle just before reaching the highest level of USD 108,786 in January 2025. If past cycles are any guide, the coming months may reveal whether The top is already in.

Piki about the right: Does BTC end sometimes in this cycle?

Bitcoin was turned on Correction path from February and currently dropped by 20% compared to the price of 108,786 USD. The price of bitcoins even went to correct up to 78,280 USD in the second week of March, causing reactions whether the crypto has He has already reached the peak price in this cycle.

However, bitcoin can Don’t be in the woods yet, Because not all combs occur immediately through market peaks. Severino pointed out that past cycles contained “right -wing” peaks, in which bitcoins still rise slightly after crossing the comb. Bull Run 2017 was the most right -wing, and the price action remained sturdy for some time after combing the red zone. However, other cycles began to turn back shortly after this maximum risk point was reached.

It seems that Bitcoin has already passed the red comb based on the Severino model, but this does not confirm that the top is still in. Instead, it means that the margin of error narrows quickly. The longer BTC is still corrected by this point, the more he raised the risk of a bear The phase becomes.

BTC is trying Recover the stubborn rush At the time of writing this text, it trades at USD 87,300 after an enhance of 3.6% in the last 24 hours. Many other analysts say that the price of bitcoins can Still a graph of the higher territory this year Before confirmation of the final top.

A distinguished painting from Istock, chart from tradingview.com