Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has extended its recession into December after falling about 30% over the past three months, raising concerns about how far the sell-off could extend into the end of the year.

Key conclusions: :

• ETH could fall towards $2,500-$2,200 if MVRV support and the pennant break down.

• A potential breakout of the falling wedge maintains bulls’ hopes for an raise to $3,550.

MVRV Ether focuses on $2,500

On Tuesday, Ether retested its MVRV -0.5σ deviation band (turquoise), currently trading around $2,820-$2,830, as support for the second time in a week, Glassnode data can be seen.

MVRV bands compare Ethereum’s market price to the levels where holders have recently moved their coins, often highlighting key support and resistance zones.

As a result, the −0.5σ band has repeatedly acted as an critical mid-cycle support during downtrends.

In March, ETH’s mighty close below the −0.5σ band preceded a 40% decline, with price heading towards the realized price band (purple), which was the first major downside target.

A sustained break below the -0.5σ support this time would again shift attention towards the realized price near $2,500, a level that has historically acted as a downside magnet during market correction phases.

The Ethereum pennant points to the next 20% correction.

Ether’s recent price action has compressed into a bearish pennant on the daily chart, a triangle-shaped continuation pattern that typically forms after edged declines and subsides towards the previous trend.

A confirmed pennant break would open the door to a measured move towards the $2,200-$2,220 area, or about 20% below the current level. The zone has aligned with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 rally and the earlier April demand cluster.

A downside target also emerged around the top of a falling wedge, shared by analysts House.

Falling wedges usually cause breakouts; however, this may indicate that ETH may form a local bottom around the $2,200-2,220 zone in December.

Related: Fusaka Ethereum Update: Scaling Rollups Without Breaking the Core

ETH could surge to $3,550 in the novel year if the price breaks above the upper trendline of the wedge as shown below.

This upside target is consistent with ETH price predictions made by many analysts during recent downturns. Other Ethereum valuation models continue to forecast ETH prices above $4,000, deeming the cryptocurrency “undervalued.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.