Ether (ETH) fell below $1,900 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday, extending 30-day losses to 38% as President Donald Trump’s tariffs dampened investor sentiment.

Several market and technical indicators show that the ETH price could drop further before the bulls attempt a recovery.

Key takeaways:

• Ether is trading below the realized price, which has historically indicated bearish continuation phases.

• ETH price may not bottom until its 50-week moving average crosses the 100-week average.

• Coinbase Premium at a 3.5-year low and continued ETF outflows reflect mighty selling by US traders.

Ether falls below the realized price

Ether’s 38% price decline over the past month has seen it fall below key support levels, including the realized price.

This is an onchain indicator that recalculates market value based on the price at which ETH was last transferred.

Ether’s current market price of $1,830 is also below its average cost basis, which is currently $2,380, which is historically a bearish sign.

Related: Ethereum Foundation Begins ETH Staking Amid Continued Concerns About Customer Diversity

When the realized price is above the spot price, it usually acts as resistance, leaving a significant portion of holders underwater.

In these conditions, panic selling becomes more likely given the current fear and uncertainty stemming from tariffs that are gripping the cryptocurrency market.

Moreover, falls below the realized price have historically indicated full capitulation phases, during which investors lose all confidence and start selling in enormous quantities.

In June 2022, the spot price of Ether fell below the realized price, preceding a 45% drop in the price of ETH following the Terra Luna market crash. A similar scenario occurred in August 2018 before Ether dropped 77%.

The current configuration also resembles previous configurations, exposing the ETH price to a deeper correction.

ETH price charts continue to favor bears

History shows that ETH did not find a bottom until the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) broke above the 100-week EMA. This type of cross has marked the end of every major bear market, including 2022 and 2018, as shown in the chart below.

Currently at $3,017, the 50-week EMA is just above the 100-week EMA ($2,920), which suggests that the ETH/USD pair may continue to decline until these trend lines signal a potential bottom.

Traders also noticed a bear flag pattern on the daily price chart following the loss of key support levels.

“Ether Bearish Flag Showing Right Now” he said BitBull trader on Monday’s X post, adding:

“The ultimate goal is $1,400 to $1,500.”

As Cointelegraph reports, the ETH/USD pair may fall as low as $1,100 due to degenerating network activity and weakening institutional demand.

Ether’s Coinbase Premium returns to 2022 levels

The Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between ETH on Coinbase and Binance, dropped to -0.11 on February 6 before recovering to its current value of -0.09.

A deeply negative premium suggests that a significant portion of sales come from the US, especially retail. The last time the 30-day SMA was this negative was during the deep bear market in 2022.

Historically, extremely negative premiums have often coincided with capitulation phases, as seen in 2022. Downward momentum will continue as long as U.S. investors continue to sell at a discount.

Additionally, institutional demand has also fallen sharply, with US Ethereum spot ETFs seeing outflows for five weeks in a row, the longest streak since April 2025.

Investors withdrew nearly $1.3 billion from these investment products during that period, with $123 million leaving the funds last week, according to SoSoValue data.

Therefore, in the current environment, institutions are also selling, and last week, over $36.5 million flowed out of Ethereum’s global investment products, further worsening Ether’s situation.