Crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) predicts a robust bullish outlook for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2024. Using historical data, Astronomer presents the forecast analysis via X, which suggests an 82% probability of an ultra-bullish trend based on Bitcoin’s performance in September.

The cryptocurrency analyst begins his analysis with a focus on Bitcoin’s unexpected positive performance in September. “September will soon be over and, to the surprise of the public, it looks like it will be green (in the long run), with a chance of being the greenest September in 2024, confirming our groundbreaking thesis that we have been working on for some time now” – I’m writing.

Delving deeper into market sentiment, Astronomer notes a significant disconnect between public perception and the actual position of the market. “And while we are no longer the only ones arguing for the full bull thesis, the data is and remains data. And after careful inspection, despite the talks/analysis positions, most have not yet taken a position, have taken profits too early or will cheer for the declines and claim it is a gift because they want it,” he explained.

He further elaborates on sentiments within closed circles: “This observation comes not only from public posts or Twitter, but also from a number of paid groups that participated in conducting these analyses. No sharing of names or details is allowed, but most groups are indeed long and early profit, looking for entry, or short. So it looks like the hand of the market is working.”

82% chance that Bitcoin will be bullish

The astronomer’s bullish thesis is based on historical data, in particular the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price. “The data analysis here is quite simple: every time BTC had a green September, it was followed by no less than three green months, i.e. green October, November and December. And this has happened 3/3 times since the inception of BTC,” he claims, pointing to a robust seasonal pattern.

However, he quickly tempers this with criticism of his methodology, admitting the potential pitfalls of low-data samples: “Like I said, I’m not the biggest fan of seasonality, and our analysis only includes 3 data points, which only gives us 67% confidence to be able to say that the next three months will indeed be green (low error rate). But to add significance, due to the bull/bear binary nature, the data is also exclusive: if September is not green 6 out of 8 times, then the fourth quarter was not green every month.”

He further refines his thesis: “So, including exclusivity, a more general and easier to interpret claim, using more data points, is: “September’s direction determined the overall direction of Q4 and is September green rather than red 9 out of 11 cases occurred a bullish (not bearish) fourth quarter. So if September ends above 59,000. dollars, there is an 82% chance that the fourth quarter will be positive.”

The prophecy stimulated dialogue in society. User @pieceofsheet99 commented skeptically, suggesting the potential for an unexpected downturn: “If September turned out to be green, to everyone’s surprise, October could also turn out to be red, to everyone’s surprise.” The astronomer responded, confirming his reliance on historical trends: “Indeed, but it’s not something we usually observe. So personally, as always, I stick to the data.”

Astronomer’s analysis ends on a note of strategic optimism, emphasizing the importance of adapting to market dynamics and historical patterns rather than speculative impulses. “How bullish? We’ll see (time is more vital than price), but it’s not about planning for retirement and making money quickly. The idea is to be on the right side of the trade every time, enjoy the market without stress and not have too many regrets about losing money or being sidelined (enjoying the process). And this is how you will eventually (rather soon) achieve your goals.

At the time of publication, the BTC price was $64,622.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com