Players are betting that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, according to a review of data from two popular forecasting markets.
Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) to reach record highs in 2025. They also predict that the United States will give the green lightweight to several up-to-date types of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and create a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.
As of December 26, Kalshi is pricing in over a 60% chance of BTC and ETH reaching at least $125,000 and $5,000, respectively, in 2025. Polymarket is pegging a 50% chance of BTC hitting $120,000 before the end of March.
To date, Bitcoin’s record is around $108,300 and Ether’s is around $4,720.
Bitcoin price targets. Source: Kalshi
Meanwhile, Polymarket players expect U.S. regulators to approve the XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Litecoin (LTC) ETFs by July 31, with odds of around 75%, 69%, and 51%, respectively. They determined that the Dogecoin ETF (DOGE) would have a roughly 22% chance of approval by then.
Additionally, Kalshi users see a 59% chance that US President-elect Donald Trump will create a national strategic Bitcoin reserve during his presidency. Polymarket estimates only a 29% chance that Trump will do so in his first 100 days in office.
Polymarket and Kalshi rose to prominence in the run-up to the November U.S. elections, with trading volumes of more than $4 billion tied solely to the U.S. presidential race.
Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices changing dynamically depending on expected outcomes. They proved more precise than classic polls, predicting not only Trump’s victory but also his party’s victory in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.
Source: Polimarket
Conflicting signals
Compared to betting platforms, conventional futures markets expect more modest cryptocurrency gains in the first quarter of 2025.
Investors on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), one of the largest U.S. futures exchanges, estimate March spot prices at around $98,000 for BTC and $3,500 for ETH.
This is still significantly up from December 26 spot prices for BTC and ETH, which were around $96,000 and $3,350, respectively. Both cryptocurrencies fell by approximately 4% in the tardy morning EST on December 26.
Futures contracts are standard contracts to buy or sell an underlying asset at a future date. They play a key role in hedging strategies and are also popular in speculation.
Related: Why might tech giants like Amazon be hesitant to adopt Bitcoin?
