Bitcoin bullish level below 100k dollars: what’s stopping him?

Published on:

Bitcoin still remains the market leader. However, despite significant developments such as the introduction of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), the projected price augment to $100,000 remains “unrealized.”

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, commented on this decision and expressed his opinion on Elon Musk’s X social media platform: explain obstacles preventing Bitcoin from reaching this milestone.

Study of Bitcoin stagnation below 100,000. dollars

According to Edwards, one of the main factors is the sale of Bitcoin by long-term holders. His analysis shows a decline in the number of wallets holding Bitcoin for more than two years, from a record high of 57% in December 2023 to 54%.

The growth rate of Bitcoin holders. | Source: Charles Edwards in X

While this 3% drop may seem miniature, it represents approximately 630,000 BTC – far exceeding the amount purchased by US Bitcoin ETFs since January. Sales by long-time investors put downward pressure on the price.

Edwards also pointed out that the market has yet to fully feel the impact of the April Bitcoin halving, which reduced daily Bitcoin issuance by 50%.

He believes that the gap between the amount of Bitcoin purchased by spot ETFs and the reduced production from mining will widen significantly, underscoring the need for financial institutions to adjust their strategies and continue their leadership in Bitcoin acquisitions.

Meanwhile, Edwards has identified three key factors that he believes are necessary for Bitcoin’s price surge: increased daily ETF purchases, reduced selling by long-term holders, and an augment in US market liquidity.

BTC price low amid record inflows of ETF funds

Bitcoin is trading at $71,926, showing modest movements as it struggles to mark any price augment over the last 24 hours, despite rising 4.9% over the last 7 days.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView
BTC price is moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT incl

While Charles Edwards details the reasons why Bitcoin failed to reach the $100,000 mark, other experts analyze why the significant inflow into BTC spot ETFs did not translate into a corresponding price augment.

Experts believe that various factors dampen the impact of ETFs on the price of Bitcoin. Experienced cryptocurrency trader Christopher Inks points out that the convoluted interplay of spot trading, futures, options and ETFs influences the Bitcoin market.

Inks emphasizes that focusing solely on ETF activity does not provide a complete picture of market dynamics. Responding to a user’s query on X regarding price stagnation despite ETF purchases, Inks noted: “You do realize that the market is made up of spot, futures, ETFs and options, right? The price at any given time is the product of all of these factors, not just one of them.

Further discussions among financial experts shed lightweight on the multi-faceted nature of the BTC market. Analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that the lack of price movement despite ETF purchases may be due to existing Bitcoin holders selling their shares, offsetting buying pressure from ETFs.

Another expert, Jim, explain that while ETFs contribute to market activity, they account for a miniature portion of total Bitcoin trading.

Jimie added that most are controlled by enormous holders (“whales”) whose trading activity can overcome the impact of ETF purchases. These dynamics indicate that ponderous purchases by ETFs are often met by ponderous selling, maintaining price balance.

Featured image created with DALL-E, chart from TradingView


Leave a Reply

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here