As we approach the end of the year, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to soar to fresh highs, setting bullish expectations for the rest of the cycle. Bitfinex’s latest reports suggest when BTC’s peak could come and how much of a climb the flagship crypto may still have left.

Bitcoin’s “unique” cycle

In its latest Bitfinex alpha report highlighted the crypto industry’s major strides towards mainstream adoption and recognition this year, setting this cycle apart from previous ones.

Notably, the launch and growing institutional demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot Exchange Traded funds have exceeded expectations and attracted a “new class of investor” to the crypto space.

According to the report, this cycle was “exceptional” as fresh investors brought in by ETFs and growing confidence in the sector drove the BTC price to fresh ATH ahead of the Halving event, historically driving the flagship cryptocurrency to fresh highs after 5-7 months.

The industry has also seen growing interest in diversifying national reserves through cryptocurrencies, with several jurisdictions around the world considering implementing a strategic bitcoin reserve following the flagship cryptocurrency’s recent performance.

According to Bitfinex analysts, these factors have made BTC corrections smaller than in other cycles and will likely continue this trend for the rest of the bull market:

In the current bull cycle that began in mid-to-late 2023, Bitcoin’s corrections have been smaller, particularly since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. As institutional and ETF demand provides continued buying pressure, we expect this trend to this will continue, keeping future corrections constrained and potentially shorter.

Moreover, the incoming cryptocurrency-friendly US administration has contributed to growing bullish sentiment around the industry, leading to a massive post-election rally. As a result, the cryptocurrency market has grown 130% year-to-date (YTD) to a market capitalization of $3.69 trillion, up almost 70% this quarter.

What’s next for Bitcoin in this cycle?

The report noted Bitcoin’s performance, highlighting its 573% rise from its 2022 low of $15,487. The flagship cryptocurrency also saw a 130% year-to-date (YTD) gain, driven by this year’s industry performance.

Earlier this month, Bitcoin breached the $100,000 barrier for the first time, setting a fresh ATH closer to the $110,000 level on Monday. According to Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency still has a few more levels to climb in 2025 as historical data shows the market is in mid-cycle.

This data suggests that the BTC price is likely to peak around the third and fourth quarters of 2025, as this typically occurs around 450 days after the halving. Meanwhile, indicators such as market value to realized value (MVRV), net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) and the Bull-Bear market indicator signal that “we remain in a bull phase, but we are far from euphoric highs.”

Bitfinex also explained that the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has been effective in identifying cycle tops in the past, forecasting tops within a three-day window. Predictions from the previous cycle indicate that Bitcoin’s peak may occur between mid-2025 and early 2026.

If BTC follows the 2021 cycle pattern, BTC’s price could escalate by 40% to $339,000 and peak around June or July 2025. Nevertheless, the report noted that the flagship cryptocurrency has shown a trend of diminishing returns during cycles.

Based on this, Bitcoin’s price could instead escalate by 15% to 20% to the $160,000-$200,000 range. However, if the cryptocurrency mirrors the pattern of the 2017 cycle, BTC’s rally could extend into January 2026, peaking at $229,000 with similarly diminishing returns.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $107,729, just 0.3% below ATH.

Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com