Key points:

• Bitcoin traders are waiting for US economic policy signals because the data force federal reserves to the corner.

• Recession is more likely, according to sources among the growing unemployment and revival of inflation.

• Bitcoin and risk assets should ultimately gain recession.

Bitcoin (BTC) can gain because the US recession is becoming a “basic script”.

Fresh analysis From sources, including commercial resources, the letter Kobeissi makes gloomy forecasts of the US economy and federal reserve.

“The worst nightmare” Fed becomes real

Economic health in the US is to hit trade tariffs and reborn inflation, which may accompany them.

Kobeissi says that the latest macroeconomic data that includes GDP I.

GDP was clearly below expectations, changing negative compared to the forecast by 0.3%.

“Fed effectively must choose between concluding inflation or unemployment,” he summed up, calling the situation “the worst nightmare” of the fed.

The key issue is the range and time of all interest rate cuts, which are cryptographic traders and risk, very much observe a positive knockout effect for markets.

“Failure to reduce interest rates even more weakens GDP in the US and will probably increase unemployment. However, if interest rates are immediately reduced, we would expect another reflection of inflation,” Kobeissi continued.

Thus, in a “losing” situation, Fed is in the face of the threat of both stagflation-growing inflation with the growing unemployment-and full recession.

“Recession in the United States has become our basic scenario,” Kobeissi added, connecting with the growing opportunities for the Kalshi forecasting service.

The Bitcoin analyst sees a silver lining recession

The latest data from the CME group Fedwatch tool He emphasizes the market expectations of the FED policy, which remained conservative until 2025, despite the insistence of US President Donald Trump, which they assess below.

Related: Bitcoin ‘Sizzling Supply “is approaching USD 40 billion when new investors flood USD 95,000

Consensus suggests that the June meeting of the Federal Committee of the Open Market (FOMC) is currently an event that should cause another cuts of 0.25%. However, the May meeting has only a 3% chance of such a result.

Meanwhile, the participants of the cryptographic market are weighing a possible Fed course, because the conditions are becoming more and more difficult to navigate.

“Yesterday the market valued 57% of the likelihood of cutting by 25 billion for June 18, Fomc. Today is 63%”, a popular SKEW trader commented on Fedwatch data.

“Inventing to take economic data and foot discounts, the Fed will continue to be afraid of price pressure, but even more so about the weakness of the economy, especially if the policy is not improved on time.”

Trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de poppe predicted that the recession itself would rethink his position of the Fed.

“Rumors with a potential recession are growing, which should strengthen the thesis for the Fed to relax the policy,” he wrote in part Reaction X For GDP data Q1.

“It will probably be low on the markets, the liquidity will be added and the risk to develop.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and commercial movement involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.