The price of Bitcoin seemed to recover $ 100,000 on Friday, accumulated due to the decision of the Securities Committee and the United States (SEC) to abandon the lawsuit against Crypto Exchange Coinbase. However, the most essential cryptocurrency did not take advantage of this shoot change after using the exchange of Bybit worth $ 1.4 billion.
Since the price of bitcoins currently ranged above USD 96,000, the last data on the chain suggests that some variability indicators are approaching historically low levels. Here’s how the latest volatility trend can affect the results of BTC prices in the coming weeks.
Is the BTC rally on the horizon?
In the last post on the X platform, Crypto Analytics Glassnode explained Like two key variability indicators approaching historically low levels, they can affect the price of Bitcoins and its future trajectory. Two essential indicators are the 1-week “realized variability” and “Implted variability options”.
In the case of context, the volatility (also called historical variability) measured how many assets (in this case BTC) have changed in a certain period. On the other hand, implied variability is a measure that assesses the likelihood of future changes in the price of assets.
According to Glassnode data, 1-week Bitcoin variability has recently dropped to 23.42%. The intelligence company in the chain has noticed that the current value of the metric is similar to historical low, because the realized BTC variability has dropped at this level several times in the last four years.
Source: Glassnode/X
In particular, the 1-week variation rate dropped to 22.88% and 21.35%, respectively in October 2024 and November 2024, these points acted as DNA, and the metric ones were reflected in this level in the past. From a historical point of view, such declines in realized variability were preceded by significant price movements, increasing the chances of potential breakthrough – or even correction.
Source: Glassnode/X
At the same time, the 1-week Bitcoin options suggest that the volatility has also increased to a significant decrease to 37.39%. The current level of the indicator is similar to many years-last seen in 2023 and early 2024. Similarly, the price of Bitcoins witnessed significant movement when implied variability was around this level.
In addition, it is worth noting that the long -term implied variability is currently showing a different trend. The 3-month implied variability is about 53.1%, while the 6-month indicator rises at 56.25%. This suggests that market participants expect increased variability in the coming months.
Bitcoin price at first glance
In this letter, Bitcoin is valued at around 95 340 USD, which reflects a decrease by over 3% in the last 24 hours.
The price of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Recommended photo from Istock, chart from TradingView
