Bitcoin Miner capitulation is fully effective, how long will it last?

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The collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange causes a historic event in the Bitcoin market. Yesterday, on-chain data signaled a second wave of Bitcoin miners capitulating in a single cycle.

Historically, miners have had a huge influence on the price of BTC. The miners’ capitulation now announced will put further selling pressure on the Bitcoin price, which has had a historically bad November, falling 21%.

On-chain data shows that a second wave of miner capitulations has now begun, suggesting further pain for the BTC price. As analyst Dylan LeClair wrote, Bitcoin’s hash rate starts to tilt here.

Bitcoin miners underwater

The 7-day moving average hashrate is currently 13.7% below its all-time high. Mining difficulties are expected to change by approximately -9% during the week, which will ease the burden on miners, at least in the tiny term.

Bitcoin hash rate. Source: Twitter

Nevertheless, miners’ margins have been and continue to be massively squeezed since June, the first capitulation event in this cycle. Despite this, the hash rate has until recently reached an all-time high.

This, increased mining difficulties and the price decline associated with FTX have caused the price of hashish to reach its lowest level since tardy 2020.

As Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments noted yesterday, the hashish ribbons confirmed the beginning of capitulation. “Triggered by the $10 billion FTX scam and subsequent collapse, bitcoin miners are going bankrupt and hashrate is trending down,” Edwards said.

Bitcoin hash ribbons
Bitcoin hash ribbons. Source. Twitter

The “Bitcoin Miners Net Position Change” chart shows that miners have been selling aggressively over the past month.

“Combined with the decline in hash rate and today’s mixing band crossover, this suggests that we are indeed in a miners’ capitulation phase.” he said Will Clemente from research on reflexivity.

Changing the Bitcoin mining network
Changing the Bitcoin mining network. Source: Twitter

How long will it take for the miners to surrender?

It should be remembered that the capitulation of miners is usually the last stage of a Bitcoin bear market. During the 2018 cycle, the BTC hashrate continued to enhance until the price reached $6,000, until the miners finally capitulated at $3,000.

In the current cycle, miners have already surrendered in June. Over the past two weeks, they have reduced their holdings by 4,000 BTC, which is equivalent to approximately $68 million.

Previously, they only started the net accumulation trend in September 2022, betting that the bottom had been reached. However, they bet on the wrong horse and now they are facing a severe punishment.

Historically, it has taken an average of 48 days for miners to surrender, which would mean an end to the miners’ sale pressure by mid-January 2023.

However, the last capitulation ended only after two months, on August 18. This ending was the third longest surrender in history. Bitcoin bulls should therefore remain cautious in December and January and watch the behavior of Bitcoin miners.

At the time of publication, BTC recorded a slight enhance and its price was $16,481.

BTC USD 29/11/2022
Bitcoin price, 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView


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