In his latest analysis of the current bitcoin market dynamics, prominent cryptocurrency analyst Dan Gambardello video Titled “Bitcoin Needs to Do This Now,” he addressed his 368,000 YouTube followers on the critical resistance levels Bitcoin is currently testing. Gambardello emphasized the importance of these levels for both short-term price action and broader market indicators.

Why Bitcoin Needs to Turn Bullish Now

Gambardello’s analysis begins by highlighting the importance of the short-term holder cost base, which currently stands at $63,600. He highlighted this metric as a key momentum indicator, emphasizing its role in determining the immediate bearish or bullish nature of the market. “Bitcoin is just $2,000 away from the short-term holder cost base, which currently stands at $63,600.” According to Gambardello, this is a key momentum indicator that investors should be watching.

Gambardello also maps out various resistance zones that Bitcoin needs to break through to signal a bullish market shift. He points out that Bitcoin is trading just above the 20-day moving average on the daily chart at the time of his analysis. However, the close proximity of the daily candle close made the situation highly uncertain. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages were also discussed as significant barriers that need to be broken to confirm an uptrend.

In addition to these moving averages, Fibonacci retracement levels form another cornerstone of his technical analysis. He elaborates on the potential for Bitcoin to encounter a lower high resistance area, which could lead to price consolidation or a downward correction if these levels are not breached.

Gambardello also ventures into macroeconomic territory. He suggests that widespread recession fears could suggest broader economic changes that could impact the broader cryptocurrency market. “The algorithms on X are bombarding me with recession posts, recession data, recession charts. It’s likely to go up because there are so many indicators that the market is going to crash,” he explained.

What’s more, the crypto analyst has a forceful focus on the 20-week moving average, a level he describes as a historically essential marker for distinguishing bull and bear markets. Failure to hold levels above this moving average, he points out, often precedes bearish trends, while support at or above this line can herald bullish conditions. “Failure to break above the 20-week moving average is what Bitcoin does when it enters bear markets,” he notes.

From a momentum perspective, the analyst highlighted the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators. Both tools, he mentioned, currently suggest that Bitcoin is well-positioned for a potential move higher, given the consolidation patterns and cooling periods seen recently.

However, Bitcoin needs to go up now. “Bitcoin really took off in the last cycle when the RSI was around 54 […] if you go back two cycles, Bitcoin was consistently around 53, 50 close to 54 before each augment […] consolidation in the RSI and then boom. So we are exactly where we need to be from a momentum perspective. But the move we need is up now,” the crypto analyst warns.

Another warning sign could be a sustained decline below the 20-week moving average. “We need to see Bitcoin above that 20-week moving average. […] If we see resistance […] we have to anticipate that we could very quickly fall into the lower $50,000s. That could happen very quickly,” Gambardello says, noting this as a necessary condition for a sustained uptrend to begin.

From a bullish perspective, Gambardello is waiting for a breakout above $63,700. “We are looking for bullish confirmations to break through this whole range and it is currently around $63,000 or up to around $63,700 – that is a range, it is not even a big range for Bitcoin to make a move, but that is what we are seeing,” he notes.

Overall, it’s a $50,000 or $70,000 question, as Gambardello puts it on X: “A break above could trigger a mini-run toward $70,000. Failure could mean new lows near $50,000.”

At the time of going to press, the price of BTC was

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com