Bitcoin (BTC) had a rocky start to the historically bullish month of October, fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Nevertheless, bulls still hope for an improvement later in the month.
Bitcoin’s “Uptober” has had a mixed start
The leading digital asset by reported market capitalization has had a rocky start to its strongest growth month since 2013. The chart below shows how October has historically been the most bullish month for Bitcoin, producing a median return of 21.2%.
Yesterday, BTC briefly dipped below the critical $60,000 level before rebounding to $61,179 at press time. During this rapid price movement, BTC witnessed over $32 million in liquidations, while ETH liquidations amounted to just over $18 million.
Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has fallen 6.9%, while major altcoins have suffered even greater losses. Ethereum (ETH) fell 11.2%, Solana (SOL) fell 10.9%, and BNB fell 9.9%.
According to CoinGlass data, most of the BTC price appreciation usually occurs in the second half of October. The chart below shows that the early days of October have historically been less favorable for BTC prices.
It is worth noting that October 1 was positive for Bitcoin only once since 2013, while October 2 showed gains five out of eleven times. In contrast, later dates such as October 28 had positive returns nine times out of eleven, followed by October 20, which had eight positive days out of eleven.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin’s most bearish month, September, closed this year with an escalate of 7.29%, achieving the best result since 2013.
Many factors influence the price of Bitcoin
Bitcoin experienced its fourth halving in April 2024, followed by interest rate cuts by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) in September – two events typically considered bullish from a BTC price perspective.
However, increasing geopolitical escalation has overshadowed these positive developments and uncertainty over the results of the widely contested November 2024 U.S. presidential election.
That said, some cryptocurrency analysts believe Bitcoin will rebound later in the year. For example, an analyst from Standard Chartered sees BTC falling below $60,000 represents a huge buying opportunity.
Likewise Markus Thielen from 10x Research predicts “exceptionally high” chances of cryptocurrency growth in Q4 2024. Some factors influencing this forecast include: dwindling Bitcoin domination and the escalate in Ethereum gas fees.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes thinks that interest rate cuts could lead to a short-term market crash. At press time, BTC was trading at $61,179, up 2.2% over the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from Coinglass.com and TradingView.com
