CoinShares presented a five-year valuation framework for Ethereum that puts ETH at $14,135 in a bull case by 2031, arguing that the long-term value of the asset now depends less on base layer fees and more on its role as a monetary, security and settlement infrastructure in the overall Ethereum economy.

How high and low can Ethereum go by 2031?

The report, written by Luke Nolan, senior research associate at CoinShares for Ethereum, presents ETH based on a sum-of-the-parts model combining cash flow valuation, cash premium valuation, and an additional network/speculative overlay. The main outcomes are broad: the bear case will be around $1,443 by 2031, the base case $4,935 and the bull case $14,135, representing annual returns of -9%, 16% and 43%, respectively, on current spot levels.

Ethereum is becoming increasingly hard to value.

After Dencun, fees dropped, but network usage continued to augment. Our latest research from Luke Nolan (@eazygambit) introduces a five-year sum-of-the-parts framework for ETH, combining cash flow, cash premium and network effects.

Basic version: ~$4,935… pic.twitter.com/dd938gknAR

— CoinShares (@CoinSharesCo) June 2, 2026

The main assumption is that Ethereum is harder to value after Dencun. CoinShares notes that the upgrade moved execution activity from the base layer to the layer 2 network, lowering user costs and increasing bandwidth, but also sharply reducing the fee revenue that previously supported ETH’s “ultrasonic money” narrative. Weekly fees, which peaked at over $200 million in early 2024, are now approaching $10 million, even as the number of monthly dynamic users has roughly doubled over the same period.

“Ether is not a technology company or digital gold,” the report states. “This is the native asset of a permissionless platform where builders can deploy essentially anything, drawing on decentralized security, leading liquidity and global access. In this ecosystem, ether also functions as money and security.”

This distinction affects the structure of the model. The first CoinShares platform treats Ethereum as a blockchain trading company, forecasting revenues from DEX trading fees, stablecoin transfers, DeFi activity, blob transactions, ETH transfers, real-world asset settlements, staking operations and the rest of the “other” category. In this context, the contribution to the ETH price in 2031 is modest: $25 in the bear case, $385 in the base case and $2,055 in the bull case.

Ethereum’s future depends on premium money

The second frames have much more weight. Treats ETH as the monetary base and collateral of the Ethereum ecosystem, modeling demand from staking, DeFi collateral, Layer 2 reserves, ETF inflows, corporate treasury allocations, and store of value purchases. CoinShares says this component generates a 2031 price of $1,774 in a bear case, $3,960 in a base case, and $10,065 in a bull case.

The report shows that the bull case is deliberately demanding. It assumes that Ethereum’s structural sources of demand are coalescing at elevated levels, rather than merely stabilizing. CoinShares models fee revenue of $5.7 billion by 2031, supported by DEX volumes growing at a 25% CAGR and Ethereum L1 market share increasing to 35%. In this scenario, Stablecoin supply reaches $2.8 trillion at 50% CAGR, while real-world tokenized assets reach $420 billion, especially in the case of Ethereum.

ETF fund flows are also an essential variable. In the bull case, CoinShares is betting that annual ETF flows will reach $40 billion by 2031, while corporate purchases will grow to $25 billion and demand for value stores will augment significantly as the asset class matures. A 3x regime multiplier is then applied to the buying pressure, reflecting a market environment with fewer willing sellers and more price discovery.

“The bull case requires that the six demand catalysts identified in Section 4 accumulate at a high level, with Ethereum increasing its market share over time rather than maintaining it,” CoinShares wrote. “You could consider this a ‘everything worked out perfectly and more’ scenario.”

The base case is more restrained, but still constructive. It assumes Ethereum will remain the dominant sharp contract blockchain, DEX volumes are growing at a 17% CAGR, L1 DEX share remains at 20%, Ethereum stablecoin supply will reach around $450 billion by 2031, and DeFi TVL compounds at 25%. This path gives ETH a suggested price of $4,935 by 2031, or approximately 110% upside over five years.

CoinShares says the highest probability lies somewhere between the base and bull cases. The report argues that Ethereum doesn’t need to win in every category to clear its core target, but it does need to maintain DEX shares, maintain its stablecoin position, deliver scaling improvements like Glamsterdam, and see ETH ETF flows improve towards Bitcoin-adjusted levels.

The key risk is that the economics of Ethereum after Dencun’s decision will remain unresolved. CoinShares clearly points to faint fee revenues, uncertain blob mechanics, competitive pressures from Tier 1 alternatives, regulatory frictions, monetary policy changes, and delayed scaling milestones as variables that could force a re-examination of the model.

At the time of publication, the price of ETH was $1,870.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com