This Bitcoin price is expected to reach 6-digit levels for several years now, but that goal has remained elusive for the cryptocurrency. However, with experts predicting an upcoming cryptocurrency bull run, expectations for a bitcoin price in the 6-digit range have resurfaced. One crypto analyst went a step further, predicting when the price of bitcoin will hit $200,000 based on historical data.
Bitcoin Power Law and Exponential Decay Theory
WX (formerly Twitter) fastingpseudonymous crypto analyst @apsk32 pointed out a 13-year trend that has been ongoing for Bitcoin since its inception. This trend uses a power equation and exponential decay to facilitate determine how high the price of Bitcoin will go in each cycle and how low it might fall later.
The Power Law Cycle Cloud, presented by the crypto analyst in a video accompanying X’s post, showed how high the price of BTC rose and fell during the last three bull and bear cycles. Using the same trend, the crypto analyst proposed how high the price of Bitcoin will rise next.
As per the trend, the crypto analyst believes that the price of Bitcoin will break through the 6-digit mark and peak just below or at the $200,000 level. The year in which this is expected to happen is 2025, which would mean sticking to the established four-year growth cycles for BTC.
Just as the trend predicts how high the price will go, it also shows how low it could go in a bear market after a bull run. It predicts that in 2026, BTC will fall about 57.5% from its high of $200,000, creating a low of $85,000.
The cryptocurrency analyst also addressed concerns that bitcoin’s price could deviate from this trend. First, he points out that bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor has said that “all your models are going to be broken!” However, the analyst emphasizes the fact that the model Saylor ultimately presents for BTC is also consistent with what the power law says.
The analyst also acknowledges the possibility of an invalidation, saying, “I’ll be watching the channel for an invalidation. As someone who has seen his BTC value drop 80% twice, I’m looking for more than ‘this time it’s going to be different.’”
When it comes to Bitcoin is leaving The cryptocurrency analyst explained that based on the power law and exponential decay trend, “we don’t have to like it, but we have to respect it.” He added: “We can hope that the situation will change, while remaining aware of this 13-year trend.”
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
