In the analysis of March 27, 2025, entitled “Where Bitcoin is guided by the next? Signal hidden in real -time data”, Truflation emphasizes the repetitive phenomenon: every time its inflation indicator experiences a clear decline, which later moves or turns, Bitcoin tends to grow.

Where is Bitcoin going?

Trufflation’s tests It points to the background formed by the consequences of Covid-19, when central banks around the world have reduced interest rates to almost zero and directed liquidity to the economy. This period of basic money coincides with Bitcoin to the highest levels in 2021 to 2022 and 2023. Persistent inflation remained, which prompted the US Federal Reserve to reverse the course. Interest rate increases and quantitative tension have become the basic tools for fighting price pressure, and the federal reserve clearly intended to reduce consumer prices to 2%.

According to the Truflation report, real -time inflation readings reached up to 2% in June 2023. The official consumer price rate (CPI), published by Bureau of Labor Statistics, reflected this formula about a month and a half later, at 3% in July 2023, from mid -2012, regardless of the straight line. Instead, he oscillated between higher and lower borders, showing a cyclical disinflation pattern, which would then stabilize or reverse. Truflation now believes that each of these cyclical “inflection points” strictly correlates with further increases in Bitcoin prices.

The report refers to four separate periods from September 2023 to September 2024, when the Trufflatation index trained down and then flattened or bounced. In each of these cases, the price of Bitcoin increased shortly thereafter. Truflation suggests that the fifth such event can now develop: the inflation rate has fallen rapidly at the beginning of 2025, providing about 1.30% – the level not observed for several months – before reflection to 1.80%. This situation resembles an earlier disinflage troughs, which based on the Tufflation data saved a novel wave of buying bitcoins.

“When the trend of misinflation of the Tropection stops or reversed, Bitcoin tends to collect shortly afterwards. This pattern has repeated several times – and if the story is rhyming, it can grow soon,” says the analysis.

The basic reason, explains Truflation, revolves around the future Bitcoin character and its sensitivity to changes in liquidity. Mighty disinflation usually causes speculation that the federal reserve can be made of lifting rates and may soon become a pigeon. While steep and inexorable disinflation can cause fears of recession, slowing down or stopping in the fact that the trend of disinflation often calms the markets, that the economy does not move into deterioration of the economic situation.

This “soft landing” scenario embroidery the risk of risk. Traders and investors who believe that inflation has been suppressed enough to delay the additional exacerbation – or to speed up the stakes – deform their optimism in resources such as Bitcoin.

The report confirms that no single fragment of data, including its own trufflation, has absolute swaying over the asset as elaborate and broadly rooted as Bitcoin. He emphasizes, however, that inflation expectations in real time resound in global markets, affecting shares, goods and currency trade, in addition to cryptography. By anticipating changes in these expectations, some investors may overtake the curve when official CPI reports and central bank statements finally confirm or deny the evolving trend.

“Trufflation does not affect bitcoins in a vacuum. No single data source is never done. But inflation expectations wave on a wide range of markets – from action to goods – and especially on bond yields and Forex markets,” sums up the analysis.

During the BTC press it traded at USD 84,461.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com

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