Ether (ETH)’s 33% surge from multi-year lows below $1,800 appears to be cooling off, but several key indicators suggest the leading altcoin could be poised for a bigger rally toward $6,000 or more.

Key takeaways:

• Ether is currently exhibiting a technical setup similar to previous cycles, which has sparked a massive rally in the price of ETH.
• The potential for supply constraints increases as rising accumulation and exchange outflows reduce the immediate pressure on sales.
• Coinbase’s rising premium reflects the return of institutional demand in the US.

The Ether fractal is targeting an ETH price of $6,000

Ether is currently bouncing off the multi-year trend line that has historically marked ETH price lows on a macro scale. Previous instances in April 2025 and mid-2022 resulted in ETH price increases of 260% and 130%, respectively.

“$ETH maintains a long-term ascending trendline,” CryptoJack analyst he said in X’s last post, adding:

“Will history repeat itself?”

ETH/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A bullish crossover of the moving average divergence index (MACD) also confirmed the price low.

“The weekly bullish MACD $ETH crossover is now confirmed” – Ash Crypto analyst he said in X’s last post, adding:

“The last 2 times this happened, ETH went up 183% and 75%.”

Meanwhile, the weekly RSI is recovering from levels that marked previous macroeconomic lows, suggesting that Ether’s recent decline to $1,750 was a low.

ETH/USD weekly chart. source: Moon show

Ether’s current price action is following a similar pattern, with the price once again bouncing off the same structural support, a bullish MACD transition confirmed, and an RSI rebound following oversold conditions.

If history repeats itself, ETH could rise 75% to 260% from the bottom, placing Ether’s upside target at $3,000-$6,300.

The potential to limit the supply of ETH is growing

Ethereum’s on-chain metrics reveal tightening supply dynamics, a phenomenon that has previously sparked significant ETH price increases.

The Binance ERC-20: Stablecoin Whale Activity Index shows structural supply depletion.

The chart below shows that the number of daily accumulation addresses (wallets constantly buying ETH) increased to 2,434, surpassing the number of exchange depository addresses (wallets preparing to sell), which dropped to 2,300.

This change suggests that huge players have moved from the “waiting” phase to vigorous accumulation, CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain he said in a recent QuickTake analysis.

“This scenario is extremely positive for the price structure as it shows that there are far fewer addresses sending ETH to the exchange with the intention of selling than players accumulating or positioning to absorb liquidity,” the analyst said, adding:

“The supply shock is already underway.”

Binance ERC-20 Stablecoin Whale Activity Index. Source: CryptoQuant

This is also seen in rising outflows from exchanges, as the net change in ETH positioning on exchanges over the last 30 days dropped by 1.4 million ETH on April 2, marking the largest enhance in seven months, according to Glassnode data.

At the time of writing on Thursday, the net position change is -351,300 ETH (30 days).

ETH: Change in net position on the exchange. Source: Glassnode

Such outflows typically indicate powerful accumulation by huge holders who move tokens into chilly storage or invest in investment products, thereby reducing immediate selling pressure.

This is usually called “supply tightness” – a condition that has historically preceded piercing upward moves, especially in conjunction with improving market sentiment.

The demand for Ethereum is increasing

As Cointelegraph reports, Ether futures on Binance hit their highest level in almost two months as aggressive buyers entered the market last week. Buyer volume has grown above $5 billion and the current setup is bullish.

The U.S. market is driving much of this demand, as measured by Coinbase’s premium index.

The Coinbase ETH Premium Index measures the price difference between the ETH/USD pair on Coinbase and Binance.

This index gained value on April 4, reaching 0.055 on April 14, the highest level since October 2025. In early February, the index dropped to -0.21, and has now returned to 0.04.

This usually signals increased demand from institutional investors, especially in the US market.

Coinbase Ethereum Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs have seen 10 consecutive days of net inflows totaling $590 million. This marks the longest inflow streak since December 2024, accompanying a 95% enhance in ETH prices in Q4 2024.

Spot Ethereum ETF Flow Chart. Source: SoSoValue

Meanwhile, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, the world’s largest public holder of Ether, increased its holdings last week with another purchase of 101,627 ETH, reflecting the return of demand for ETH among institutional investors.