Ethereum (ETH) is struggling to break the $4,000 mark and regain a clear bullish structure, with price action tightening after several failed attempts to regain momentum. The market remains cautious amid the recent volatility, with investors keeping a close eye on whether ETH will return to its upward trend or continue to drift lower. Analysts are currently divided, with some saying Ethereum’s fundamentals remain mighty, driven by network activity, scaling progress and institutional traction, while others point to increasing downside pressure and weakening market structure that could lead to a deeper pullback.

Despite price uncertainty, fresh on-chain data signals growing confidence among long-term participants. According to Santiment, over 200,000 ETH worth approximately $780 million was withdrawn from exchanges in the last 48 hours, marking one of the largest short-term outflow spikes this quarter. Such activity typically suggests accumulation as investors move assets into self-custody rather than holding them on exchanges to sell.

This discrepancy between price volatility and high accumulation reinforces the current market debate. As liquidity dynamics change, Ethereum is at a pivotal moment, and its ability to regain $4,000 will likely determine whether bullish momentum reemerges in November.

Enormous ETH payouts signal investor confidence as the market heads towards a risk-on environment

The recent wave of gigantic Ethereum withdrawals from exchanges further reinforces a growing theme in the market: investor confidence is strengthening. With over 200,000 ETH moving into self-custody within 48 hours, many participants seem confident in Ethereum’s medium-term prospects, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution. Historically, significant currency outflows have coincided with accumulation phases preceding significant market development, especially in conjunction with favorable macro developments.

For many analysts, Ethereum is currently at the center of a potential bullish momentum in altcoins. Despite the recent struggle to convincingly reclaim the $4,000 level, broader market sentiment remains constructive. ETH continues to benefit from fundamental enablers, including increasing network usability, expanding Layer 2 activity, and growing stack participation. If market conditions decisively change risk, Ethereum’s role as the primary settlement and liquidity center in the altcoin ecosystem puts it in a position to lead capital flows.

Macro conditions are also working in ETH’s favor. With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points and signaling the end of quantitative tightening, global liquidity is expected to gradually improve. Historically, changes towards easing monetary policy have accelerated inflows into risky assets – including cryptocurrencies. As conventional markets expect stronger returns, investors may increasingly seek exposure to high-beta assets with a mighty structural narrative, and Ethereum fits this profile.

Ethereum holds the $3,900 level as the price falls below key moving averages

Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $3,905, holding a key support region, but struggling to regain upward momentum as the price remains capped below major moving averages. After failing to sustain moves above the $4,200 resistance area earlier this month, ETH has moved lower into a tightening range, reflecting indecision and reduced volatility following recent macroeconomic-driven volatility.

The chart shows ETH trading below the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages, which are currently just above the price and acting as vigorous resistance. For bulls, reclaiming these levels – especially a daily close above $4,050-$4,150 – would be a constructive signal that momentum is turning in favor of buyers. Such a rebound could open the way to a retest of $4,300-$4,500, where there has been consistent supply pressure lately.

On the other hand, the main support to watch remains the $3,800 level. A sustained break below this zone could expose ETH to lower levels near $3,500, especially if broader market sentiment weakens. However, the 200-day moving average (red) remains well below the price near $3,200, signaling that the long-term bullish structure is still intact.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com