The price of Bitcoins dropped by more than -8.8% from Friday, when Bybit suffered the greatest cryptographic hack in history. The flagship digital assets reached the peak of 99,493 USD at the end of last week, only to withdraw to about USD 91,500 during the press, which means a decrease by -5.5% from Monday. This deterioration of the economic situation will not only destroy bitcoins at $ 95,000, but also puts it on the verge of 97-day critical loss from 91,000 to USD 102,000. In particular, the Bitcoin price has dropped below the decreasing trend channel, which has been appearing since January 20.

What next with Bitcoin?

Ari Paul, co -founder and director of the Blocketduder Capital investment, offered a broadly extensive view of Bitcoin trajectory and a wider macroeconomic environment. IN post At X Paweł touched the potential of the further weakness of the capital market and its impact on digital assets: “My market take: Actions in 4-15 months of pain (I will die 9 months) related to the definition government of the principle (mainly tariffs and mass layoffs). This is a political question – does Trump admin “surrender” and becomes seriously inflationary? In the vast majority of similar cases in history, the answer was yes, but now little confidence. “

Moving to the crypto, Paweł emphasized that although cryptocurrencies can still show compact -term correlations with actions, they have various cyclical rhythms by nature: “What does this mean for crypto? I still think that cryptographic and actions have different rhythms of cycles, but this does not negate the shorter correlation of the deadline. Alts probably follows the actions at the beginning (but they are falling so much, even compared to 2021 prices, they can long before actions. “

Speaking of Bitcoin, Paul predicts that the leading cryptocurrency “will act like a mixture of gold and S & P 500”, adding: “If the gold remains strong, it would suggest that Bitcoin would outweigh the loss of action, but maybe not much. Rebirth to ~ 73 thousand USD-77 thousand USD seems likely, I would probably add there. “

Despite the compact -term variability, Paul remains optimist: “I remain sure that the cryptographic market is not suitable, but it looks more and more than previous cycles, perhaps much slower and longer. My basic case is that the crypto will conduct a general refund of macro inflation, so maybe Crypto Bull Run resumes in 6 months, and the actions appear in 9. Date of dates are simply a sign of my guessing. I do not put weight on the exact time frames. “

The founder of Bitmex Arthur Hayes also took x to x alert approaching pushing down. He pointed to the mechanics of stock exchange funds (ETF) and the arbitration of the Futures market as potential factors of increased sales pressure.

“Bitcoin Goblin Town Incoming: Many IBIT owners are hedging funds that were long ETF Compact CME Future to achieve performance greater than in the case of financing, compact -term American treasures. If this basis falls as BTC falls, these funds will sell IBIT and buy back Futures CME contracts. These funds are profit, and the basis is similar to profits, which he rested within a few hours and the implementation of profits. $ 70,000, I see you Mofo – he writes.

In particular, a research company 10x Research published Analysis on Monday indicating that while ETF Bitcoin – led by the IBIT Blackrock product – brought $ 38.6 billion net inflow from the moment of launching January 2024, a significant part of this capital cannot represent uncomplicated plants for rising BTC prices, adapting to Hayes’ statement.

“Although ETF Bitcoin attracted $ 38.6 billion net inflow since the premiere of January 2024, our analysis suggests that only $ 17.5 billion (44%) represents a real long -term purchase. Most – 56% – probably associated with arbitration strategies, in which short positions of bitcoin termination contracts balanced the inflows ” – noted the company.

Before the constant decrease in the price of market techniques Tony “The Bull” Severino, warned About the upcoming volatility in Bitcoins, noting that the daily Bollinger teams achieved extreme tightness-a lot often, and then a significant swing of prices: “Soon Bitcoin will be made a decision, because daily Bollinger teams achieve the third most modern reading since 2018 at the end of 2018. The record led to a 50% inheritance slightly above month. In mid -2023, the record led to 200% of climbing in just over 200 days. In what direction does volatility seem? “

With Bitcoin slightly above USD 91,000, and the market is still spinning before the historical Hack Bybit, the market is at a key moment. Chart signals, macroeconomic uncertainty and unwinding elaborate trade strategies are combined with organized perspectives with a possible extension of this breakdown to a compartment of 73,000–7,000 USD in the coming months.

Meanwhile, this does not have to herald the beginning of the bear. Chris Burnis, partner in the deputy VC, commented Via X: “In mid-2021: BTC fell by 56%, ETH fell by 61%, Sol fell by 67%, many others by 70-80%+. You can come up with all the reasons why this cycle is different, but the reset of the middle bull we go through is not unprecedented. People calling for an inflatable bear are wrong. “

In the BTC press it traded at USD 90,537.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com