If History Repeats Itself, Bitcoin Could Fall 33% Again: Here’s Why

Published on:

Bitcoin is already down more than -22% since its mid-March peak of over $73,000. While BTC is currently stabilizing above $57,000 after its recent price crash, there could be more downside if history repeats itself, according to Jacob Canfield, a trading mentor at Trading Mastery. Canfield’s latest analysis indicates the possibility of a further decline in Bitcoin price, potentially reaching its lowest level since the beginning of the year.

Why Bitcoin Price Could Fall Another 33%

Canfield’s analysis on TradingView is based on historical patterns observed in bitcoin’s price trends. “Historically, bitcoin has loved to retest yearly open levels,” Canfield notes. He says these retests can confirm bearish or bullish trends, but they are a consistent feature of bitcoin’s market behavior. Since 2017, the open price has been retested within a year every year, with notable exceptions in 2023 and 2024 (so far).

“Since 2017, the annual open has been retested every year except for 2023 and 2024,” Canfield noted. For example, a bearish retest of BTC’s 2018 open price occurred just before the COVID-19 crash, and similar patterns have been seen in subsequent years. “Even the 2019 annual open of $3,850 was retested during the 2020 Covid crash,” the crypto analyst added.

Moreover, the 2020 yearly open was retested in the first 3 months of 2020. The 2021 open was also retested and set a low before a significant rally that led to a $69,000 high just before the FTX collapse. “The 2022 yearly open was a bearish retest similar to 2018 before the lows around $16,500. Much like the yearly retest of the 2021 open gave us our bottom, this gave us our local top,” Canfield noted.

Looking ahead, the crypto analyst speculates on a potential bottom for Bitcoin in the coming months. “This is where it gets interesting. The yearly opens in 2023 and 2024 have yet to be retested. The question is whether we will form a bottom at the yearly open in 2024 before making more record highs, or capitulate to the yearly open in 2023 at $16,500 like we did in 2019.”

Key metrics to look out for

The answer may lie in a few technical indicators that Canfield considers crucial. First, Canfield mentions the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This indicator closely aligns with the projected yearly open for 2024, suggesting a higher probability of finding support between $38,000 and $42,000. It is worth noting that such a low price drop would mean another -33% for BTC holders.

The second key indicator is the weekly 200 EMA/MA Ribbon. This indicator is also converging around the 2024 open price. This reinforces the potential for this level to act as a mighty support zone. “This gives us a higher probability that we form a bottom around this region, and the yearly open in 2023 could act like the yearly open in 2017 and never be retested,” Canfield speculates.

Despite the bearish outlook, Canfield’s analysis leaves room for various scenarios, emphasizing the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s market dynamics and the role of historical precedents in predicting future trends. “Either way, I think this gives us a high-probability target based on historical precedents where we might find a local bottom,” he concludes, inviting the community to further discussion and analysis.

At the time of going to press, the BTC price was $57,479.

BTC needs to reclaim 200-week EMA (blue line), 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com


Leave a Reply

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here