In a recent research report divided into X, Joe Consorti, head of growth in IHEA, developed ongoing rumors, claiming that the price of bitcoins is artificial. Consorti presents a comprehensive chain data test, indicating normal cyclical behavior of long -term owners (LTH) and their profit raising patterns as key factors of animated Bitcoin transactions.

Is the price of Bitcoin manipulated currently?

One of the core arguments Consorti addresses are suspected that the “boring consolidation period” can be designed by hidden market forces. His words: “Claims at an artificial price are an argument from the times of gold, which does not work in Bitcoin, whose book is controlled in real time, which means that we can see exactly who is buying and selling through our own node on the network. “

Consortia emphasizes that all joint efforts to the artificial capitalization of Bitcoin would be perceptible to the observers in the chain. Instead, the data indicate a well-exhalved pattern: after the BTC assembly in the lower price ranges-between 15,000 to 25,000 USD-they will sell parts of their shares in higher prices, redistributing coins to recent market participants who continue to bidding bitcoins up. “This is normal. Those who have stayed over the years for years begin to unload when the price increases, transferring coins to new buyers who raise the price to even higher levels. “

According to Consorti, Bitcoin has now entered the over 100-day range of consolidation around 95,000 USD-Prince is compared to previous multi-month consolidation phases, which eventually expanded in the main price extensions.

The study provides a retrospective view on how LTH has survived in previous price climbing: “LTH has accumulated BTC from USD 15,000 to USD 25,000 before they sell new market participants (short -term owners) who bid on the price to the next” step “. They did the same from $ 25,000 to $ 40,000, from $ 40,000 to $ 65,000, and from $ 65,000 to ~ $ 95,000 we are now. “

Consorti notes that LTH has recently transformed into net batteries. Although the change is petite, it claims that this behavior usually means the end of the tail of consolidation before the next breakthrough.

The researcher also points to the last $ 1.4 billion Ethereum Hack on Bybit – almost the largest in the history of cryptocurrencies – as a factor temporarily rejecting Bitcoin from an attempt to break free from falling wedge pattern. Despite the disruptions of the market, Bitcoin fell only by 1.75% on the day, which according to Consorti is a testimony to BTC’s “direct strength” and reducing correlation with wider cryptocurrency assets.

In general, Consorti expects that the falling wedge “is solved until the first week of March”, except for the additional Black Swan events. He also notes that the current Bitcoin consolidation zone can stretch outside 101 days, warning that “maximum pain on the market” may extend for 236 days, reflecting the prolonged consolidation period of last summer.

Consorti also refers to the possible influence of President Trump’s working group on Bitcoin, which is to decide on the strategic profitability of the Bitcoin reserve until the end of June. If the final decision comes, he suggests that it can provide a vast spark for the market – either stubborn or bear, depending on the result.

The ETF meeting, once perceived as the main propeller of Bitcoin prices, has decreased from the beginning of January. Although they still show 7-8 daily inflows, they are significantly falling from the levels of figures 9-10, which took place during the last spring and autumn, which indicates that other market forces, such as institutional dynamics and chain, may have greater impact of traffic prices of this cycle.

Another topic is the dislocation of Bitcoin from Global M2 Money Supply, which followed the price with incredible accuracy for almost 18 months. This correlation broke when Global M2 suggested a deeper deterioration of the economic situation for Bitcoin, but BTC still floats around USD 95,000. Now, when M2 reaches up again on the weaker American dollar, research suggests the possibility of equalizing bitcoins to the next higher leg.

Comparison of bitcoins with gold with a 50-day advantage also means that the recent Gold Trajectory may “indicate the resolution of the mountain”, although less precise than M2 correlations. If this persists, the emphasis on $ 120,000 seems likely.

Consorti sums up, transforming attention to the evolving landscape of the state demand of the US Treasury (POSST). The main foreign owners, such as China and Japan, gradually reduced or flat their positions – China’s shares reached the lowest level of 759 billion dollars in 2009, while Russia has fully left and Japan stays $ 1.06 trillion for 13 years. “It’s not just China. Russia has fully left his mouth. Japan, the largest foreign owner, for 13 years he sits flat with $ 1.06 trillion. “

Meanwhile, the share of the US Federal Reserve in overdue interchangeable UstS increased from 22% in 2008 to 47.3% in 2025, which is a decrease in foreign demand. But the recent player joins the market in the form of Stablecouins, which together keep around $ 200 billion in treasures to support their tokens. According to consorti, Stablecoin requires: “It can lower long -term interest rates. The distribution of Stablecouins and their use of treasurers as reserve assets means that they function like a completely new foreign central bank. “

He claims that Stablecouins effectively provides a fresh demand for the treasure, helping the US government compensate for decreasing foreign commitment and maintain its needs in terms of loans. The White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks publicly repeated this perspective, saying that Stablecouins assist maintain US debt fluidity.

95,645 USD traded during the BTC press.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com