Priced Bitcoin reserve in the US? Analyst shares eye-opening facts

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This article is also available in Spanish.

The market is at a key crossroads as US President Donald Trump is yet to issue an executive order related to cryptocurrency or the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). Renowned cryptocurrency analyst MacroScope (@MacroScope17) has flared up again debate through X, questioning whether such a reserve is already “valued” based on current market valuations.

Is Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Priced?

The concept of “pricing” an asset refers to the idea that all known information about a potential event is already reflected in its current price. MacroScope draws parallels between current SBR speculation and the period before the introduction of Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

“In some ways, the discussion about strategic bitcoin reserves in the U.S. mirrors the ETF debate we’ve seen before,” MacroScope common on X. He emphasized that just as ETF funds expand access and raise the participation of institutional investors, a government-backed reserve can exponentially raise the pool of capital entering the market.

MacroScope’s analysis is based on his observations before the advent of Bitcoin ETFs. At the time, he asserted that ETFs would be a catalyst for a up-to-date wave of investment, making Bitcoin more accessible to a wider range of investors. “I published the information below at a price of 44,000. BTC, a few days before the start of trading on ETF funds,” he recalls.

The introduction of ETFs has indeed facilitated easier access to Bitcoin, attracting significant institutional and retail interest. MacroScope believes that a similar, albeit more impactful, scenario could be realized for SBR. Unlike ETFs, which primarily raise liquidity and availability, SBR would signal powerful government support for Bitcoin.

According to the analyst, a Bitcoin reserve would expand “the pool of participants, certainly in terms of available capital.” This would have solemn global consequences. [It] would result from the developing arms race mentality. […] ETFs have influenced the price of Bitcoin through easier access. The US Strategic Reserve will have an impact on price due to global psychology and urgency,” he added.

To reinforce his point, MacroScope referenced a post from last year: “You can’t “price” something if you literally don’t already have access to a huge amount of capital. Yes, currently eligible speculators and their available capital can buy ahead of the event. But so much for ‘prices’ if the number of participants increases significantly soon.”

Nick Moran, founder and CEO of Space Race Energy, responded enthusiastically to MacroScope’s claims. “Macroscope, you’re blind to that,” Moran confirmed. She discussed the likelihood of a “mass-scale SBR” under a potential “Trump 2.0” administration, suggesting that such a move would set a precedent for other countries to follow.

Political support, although still in its early stages, seems promising. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a prominent pro-Bitcoin voice on Capitol Hill and author of the Bitcoin Act, recently stated on a podcast: “Wouldn’t it be funny if the United States bought Bitcoin and that scared China and Russia, so they started buying Bitcoin and we have a Bitcoin arms race instead of weapons.”

David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc., adds optimism. and key Trump campaign adviser on crypto assets, shared his expectations for X following President Trump’s pardon of Ross Ulbricht. “I still expect to see dedicated bitcoin and cryptocurrency EOs in the coming days,” Bailey said, referring to upcoming executive orders that could formalize the creation of an SBR. He then forecast: “I also expect the president to deliver on the SBR within his first 100 days.”

At the time of publication, the BTC price was $102,295.

Bitcoin price, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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