The United States has a 40% chance of recession in 2025. Among the potential of the prolonged trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to the founder of the Market Square and the founder of the Coin Office Nic Puckrin.
In an interview with Cointelegraph, the analyst said that although the recession is not likely, recession and current macroeconomic uncertainty will create an environment in which risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies, suffer. Puckrin said:
“Trump and his advisers said that they did not completely reject the recession, which means that it is definitely possible, but now I would not say that it is likely, but the chances were very climbing.”
The analyst added that US President Donald Trump is not trying to actively design a recession, but the things that Trump administration does, including limiting federal jobs and expenditure on balancing the budget, can lead to recession as a side effect.
Macroeconomic uncertainty is the main reason for the recent decrease in the American dollar indicator (DXY), because investors go capital for better possibilities on European capital markets and are looking for an escape from economic uncertainty, which currently harass the US markets, said Cointetegraph.
DXY, who follows the American dollar strength, took Nosedive in March 2025. Source: TradingView
Related: TIRE AD
Fears in the trade war drag the price of bitcoins
President Trump’s tariffs on American trading partners sent a shock wave through cryptographic markets, which led to a rapid decrease in Altcoin prices and 24% correction of Bitcoin (BTC) prices from the highest level of January 20 over USD 109,000.
The tariffs and fears of the long-term trade war again ordered market moods towards the extreme fear-Ostra. Contrast with euphoric ups after the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States in November 2025 and the inauguration on January 20.
The price of Bitcoins is fighting among the headlines of the trade war and currently trads below the 200-day interpretation average (EMA). Source: TradingView
According to the Nansen Research analyst, Nicolai Sondergaard, cryptographic markets feel the pressure of tariffs until April 2025.
The analyst added that if countries can successfully negotiate the ending of the tariffs or Trump’s administration softens its position, the markets will recover.
10x research founder Markus Thielen recently he said It was BTC that was the lowest price in March 2025, when US President Donald Trump softened rhetoric around commercial tariffs – signaling potential price reversal.
Warehouse: Bitcoiners are “entirely” on Trump from Bitcoin ’24, but it gets risky
