American and cryptocurrency markets changed dramatically on April 9 after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause for his mutual tariffs, except for China. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) reacted, increasing by 5% in less than an hour, recovering the level of USD 83,000, which was recently seen on April 6.

While S&P 500 gained 8%, Bitcoin derivatives have not yet become stubborn, because traders are cautious about changes in long -term government bonds in the USA.

Premium BTC Futures briefly increased above the neutral threshold of 5%, but the momentum could not be maintained. Investors were skeptical about whether the US Federal Reserve would lower interest rates throughout the year. However, this indicator left 3% observed on March 31, signaling the growing trust among Bitcoins bulls after several unsuccessful attempts to exceed prices below 76,000 USD.

Bitcoin traders are worried after 10 years of profitability

The hesitation of traders can be partially attributed to the exemption from April 9 from the Federal Reserve Committee meeting (FOMC), which took place on March 18–19. Minutes emphasized the fears of stagflation. According to the CME Fedwatch, the probability that the federal reserve reduced interest rates below 4% to 17 September dropped from 97.6% on 8 to 69.7% on April 9.

Traders are worried about the consequences of the weakened 10-year profitability of the US Treasury. This decrease reflects the reduced confidence in the government’s ability to manage the growing debt. Economist Peter Boockvar, editor of the Boock report, explained To Yahoo Finance: “We can draw a line of about 4.40% in 10-year crops.” He added that investors are afraid that “foreigners will continue to reduce their shares in the USA Treasurys.”

When the profitability of bonds increases, it indicates that buyers demand higher returns than the US government. As a result, the cost of turning the debt increases, potentially creating a negative cycle that weakens the American dollar. This uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment was also reflected in the bitcoin options markets.

Bitcoin derivatives signal a lack of belief from bulls

When traders predict market correction, PUT options (sales) usually exchange for a bonus, pushing the 25% Delta (PUT-Call) indicator above 6%. On the other hand, in stubborn periods, this indicator usually drops below -6%.

On April 9, the Bitcoin Delta Skew options reached the peak of 12% after China announced higher tariffs in retaliation. However, this trend completely turned after President Trump announced a tariff stop, and the indicator returned to a neutral 3%. This change suggests that options markets now value equal probabilities of price movements and down, which means the end of the bear phase, which began on March 29.

Related: The American dollar index (DXY) decreases near the level, followed by 500%+ Bitcoin price rallies

To determine whether this lack of stubborn sentiments is restricted to monthly markets of time -term contracts and options, you can examine the demand for continuous future (opposite swaps). These contracts strictly warn the Spot prices, but are based on an 8-hour financing fee. On neutral markets, the financing index usually ranges from 0.4% to 1.4% within 30 days.

On April 9, the 30-day Futures Bitcoin financing index increased to 0.9%, and its highest level for over six weeks. This growth probably reflects the retail buyers entering the market, but remains within neutral. This coherence in all BTC derivative indicators suggests that the stopping of the tariff was insufficient to restore trust, especially as the trade war has passed with China.

It is not clear, which will make Bitcoin traders adopted a stubborn attitude, but reduced macroeconomic uncertainty-as much as a decrease in 10-year achievement of the treasury in the USA-they probably play a key role.

This article is used for general information purposes and should not be and should not be treated as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are themselves and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.