Bitcoin (BTC) is in the face of “very high risk” from American trading tariffs, which can cause a decrease to 71,000 USD.
In his Latest analysisCharles Edwards, founder of the quantitative Bitcoin and the Capriole Investments digital asset fund, warned about the impact of “higher than expected” of American trading tariffs.
“Higher than expected” US tariffs press bitcoins
Bitcoin reacted clearly worse than American shares after President Donald Trump announced the world trading tariff on April 2.
BTC/USD fell to 8.5% during the day, while the S&P 500 managed to end the Wall Street trading session by 0.7% higher.
Edwards said that business expectations in the US reflect the type of uncertainty observed only three times since the turn of the millennium.
“Consider this because the tariffs are higher than expected. Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey shows today’s expectations comparable to 2000, 2008 and 2022,” said the followers.
The accompanying table showed that Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for the first time since the beginning of 2024. At the end of 2022, there was the cavity of the latest cryptographic bear, when BTC/USD reversed USD 15,600.
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey vs. S&P 500. Source: Charles Edwards/X
In the latest Capriole Market update On March 31, Edwards admitted that BOS data may create incredible signals about market moods, but argued that they should not be ignored.
“Although there is no guarantee of future perspectives (this record has false signals), it is a reading of data that we had previously in very high risk zones (2000, 2008 and 2022), telling us that we would keep a very open mind,” he wrote, adding:
“Especially if the tariff war is significantly escalated except for current expectations or corporate margins.”
In the case of Bitcoin, the key level to watch as a result of the tariff is USD 91,000, and Caprioles suggests that American macroeconomic movements “would decide from here the highest technical trend.”
“Everything else is equal, daily approximation above USD 91,000 would be a strong signal stubborn,” an update with the weekly BTC/USD chart was explained.
“Otherwise, a decrease in the $ 71,000 zone would probably see a considerable reflection.”
1-day BTC/USD chart (screenshot). Source: Capriole Investments
Btc price focus on liquidity trends in the USA
According to Cointelegraph, a silver lining for cryptocurrencies and risk assets can be in the form of growing global fluidity.
Related: Bitcoins sales after USD 109,000 of all time “much below” bicycle tops-Glassnode
In the United States, the Fed has already begun to relax strict financial policy, and the plants after returning to the so -called quantitative alleviation (QE) differs.
“How long, before the Powell printer begins to start humming?” Edwards asked.
Meanwhile, the M2 money supply is caused by the “influx”, which historically gave birth to the main price of BTC.
“Big take -out (the most important observation) is that a large influx of m2 is coming. The exact date is less important”, the Colin analyst speaks of the crypto provided in X thread This week.
The comparative map suggested a potential reflection of BTC prices at the beginning of May.
US M2 Money Supply vs BTC/USD. Source: Colin talks about Krypto/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and commercial movement involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
