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Recent report by digital asset research firm 10x Research highlights that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance on interest rate cuts remains the most essential obstacle that could mitigate Bitcoin’s (BTC) current rally.
Trump-fueled Bitcoin rally in danger ahead of FOMC meeting
Since pro-cryptocurrency Republican candidate Donald Trump secured victory in the November presidential election, Bitcoin’s price has surged an impressive 47%, from around $67,500 on November 4 to around $99,700 on January 6.
Although further increases are expected during the so-called “Trump rally” ahead of the January 20 inauguration, momentum could stall ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in delayed January, says Markus Thielen of 10x Research.
Thielen predicts a “positive start” to January for BTC, followed by a slight decline ahead of the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on January 15. A positive CPI report could reignite optimism, potentially fueling another rally ahead of Trump’s inauguration. Thielen warns, however, that the growth dynamics may weaken before the FOMC meeting scheduled for January 29.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that interest rates are likely to remain unchanged after the upcoming FOMC meeting. The tool currently predicts a 90.9% chance of maintaining interest rates at 425 and 450 basis points (BPS).

Bitcoin’s decline of about 15% to $92,900 after the December 18 FOMC meeting highlights the Fed’s significant influence. This decline came after the Fed signaled only two rate cuts for 2025 instead of five, cementing Thielen’s view that the Fed’s decisions pose a “major risk” to BTC’s current bullish trajectory. Thielen stated:
We anticipate lower inflation this year, although it may take some time for the Federal Reserve to recognize this change and formally respond to it.
Thielen also cited institutional participation as a key driver of Bitcoin’s short-term price action, with indicators such as stablecoin rates and cryptocurrency fund (ETF) inflows serving as indicators of institutional interest.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow
While U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs faced significant outflows in delayed December, fresh inflows have fueled optimism about growing institutional interest in the leading cryptocurrency. Data of SoSoValue notes that $908 million flowed into Bitcoin spot ETFs on January 3.
Additionally, several huge BTC mining companies such as MARA AND Cottage 8 strengthen their BTC reserves. More recently, tech companies such as Canadian video-sharing platform Rumble have also exposed $20 million BTC treasury strategy.
A separate report of the Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange predicts Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 by mid-2025, despite minor price declines. At press time, BTC is trading at $101,555, up 3.7% in the last 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, charts from 10x Research, CME FedWatch and Tradingview.com