Interest in XRP has increased tremendously after the launch of Spot XRP ETFs, leading some supporters to organize a $100-a-token rally before the end of the year. However, this scenario seems highly unrealistic given the fundamental market factors.
In a recent post on X, Zach Humphries dismissed the triple-digit predictions, calling them “delusional.” and I warn you that they mislead people who don’t understand the math behind market valuation.
Market cap reality check
Any attempt to peg XRP at $100 must first face circulating supply and the resulting total valuation what does this price mean? According to Humphries, pushing XRP to $100 would require a market capitalization of about $6 trillion for the cryptocurrency. This figure represents a more than 40-fold enhance from current market capitalization levels, a leap so enormous that it would require inflows of funds that would dwarf anything previously seen in the cryptocurrency industry.
The entire cryptocurrency market has a total capitalization of approximately $3 trillion. Increasing the value of a single altcoin like XRP to $6 trillion would mean the coin itself would become more than twice the size of the entire cryptocurrency market combined.
XRP reaching $100 represents an enhance of 4,445% from the current price level. With this in mind, it is truly unrealistic for XRP to reach $100 even in the next year. Therefore, those who claim that the asset can reach $100 before the end of 2025, when there is only one month left on the calendar, are ignoring capital movements, how long accumulation cycles last, and how much work it takes to build a market capitalization of this size.
The recent emergence of XRP ETFs is indeed providing greater access for institutional and retail investors. However, the expansion needed for XRP to reach $100 is so huge that no ETF launch or last-minute rally could generate that amount. necessary inflows or supply shock within the next 35 days.
The long-term potential is still there
While the goal of $100 in the next few weeks seems unattainable, it’s not necessarily decreasing long-term attractiveness of XRP. Enthusiasts who see the effects of adoption, regulatory change, and institutional influx may continue to believe in significant improvement over a multi-year horizon. For example, Zach Humpries noted that he is still very bullish on Ripple/XRP over the long term.
The purpose of Humphries’ warning was to restore perspectivethey do not dampen long-term bullish sentiment. The huge news is that XRP enthusiasts should shift their focus away from unrealistic valuations this year and instead consider targets that are consistent with actual market capitalization growth.
IN supplementary answer in a comment on his post, he mentioned a much more grounded scenario in which XRP reaches the $5 region before Christmas. However, this is also very bullish and depends on optimism returning to the broader cryptocurrency market.
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
