Bitcoin exceeded USD 95,000 during low credibility trade hours on Sunday after US President Donald Trump announced a sedate advertisement. The creation of an American cryptographic reserve, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA), has established speculation on the market. Many traders perceived this as a decisive moment, which can strengthen the cryptocurrency place in the American financial system, while others remained cautious, questioning whether the rally could remain beyond the immediate reaction. Among the skeptical are QCP capital.

A good political game?

Trump’s announcement time is hard to ignore. Over the past week, risk assets have faced growing pressure, because global markets reacted negatively to a series of economic and geopolitical development. The newly applied Trump tariffs shocked the investor’s trust, while shaky peace conversations in Ukraine-Russia caused additional uncertainty. Increased stock market variability, a very significant mood in the financial sector.

Bitcoin crashed below a multi -month range, showing signs of weakness before Trump’s announcement. The sudden advertisement was a clear contrast with the risk assets down the trajectory.

QCP capital Highlighted The political strategy behind this movement: “For the president who develops to be the hero of the market, the risk of risk assets last week was inspiring. His lots of new tariffs and catchy peace conversations in Ukraine-Russia than expected, the investor’s trust was off. So, although the SBR time was a bit unexpected, the political account was clear – Trump needed a win before they started to go down, the record, which he probably takes very personally. “

However, there are questions about whether this movement is a real change in policy towards long -term cryptographic adoption, or simply a well -announced advertisement aimed at stabilizing moods before the appearance of further economic strain. While the swift Bitcoin entrance at the weekend of aroused traders, QCP Capital remains incompatible that this rally is a sensible breakthrough. The company pointed to several key market signals that indicate that Bitcoin is not yet outside the forest.

QCP Capital warned: “Have we returned to the game? Not quite. BTC is still trading at the bottom of the multi -bodily range, and the cryptographic front -end volumes are still relatively elevated, and both main main ones still reflect PUT by the end of March. VIX is also elevated, signaling a broader market anxiety in risk resources, especially after the last escalation of the US tariff administration. “

Lessons from the past: Comparison “XI Candle”

For experienced traders, the weekend price campaign resembles a historical event on the cryptographic market – the infamous candle of the 11th in 2019. The outstanding cryptographic analyst Cool Blooded started to X to make comparisons between these two events.

Reflection on the candle XI, Shiller of frigid blood Summoned Like Bitcoin, he was in the prolonged pit, trading in fresh minimics with market moods to the bottom. Then, apparently out of nowhere, the Chinese president XI Jinping announced that China should accept blockchain technology. The result was a huge low squeeze, with bitcoins rapidly increased by 40% in just two days. Traders at that time believed that it was the beginning of a modern era stubborn for Crypto.

“The sentiment was very fast to adapt. You will be surprised (not) to hear that it did not take much to shape Twitter’s whole way of thinking in positive and the abilities that the market has an infinite offer now, “he wrote.
However, euphoria was low -lived. A few weeks later, China withdrew from the rhetoric of Pro-Blockchain, implementing fresh repression on the exchange of cryptocurrencies and warning investors against the risk of digital assets. Bitcoin’s profits slowly eroded, and the price action turned around in the following month, and eventually immersed below the initial level.

“We didn’t turn the candle right away. It took many weeks to do it, which made it more painful for people trading him or those who had stubborn prejudice – reminded Shiller Cool Blood.

The similarities between Xi Candle and Trump’s Crypto Reserve are striking. Both events occurred after prolonged periods of the weakness of the market, both took place a dramatic change of moods almost overnight and both created a modern stubborn narrative, which was widely received by the market. The key question now is whether Trump’s announcement will lead to a eternal change in the trend, or, like the XI candle, will finally come out, leaving the dead buyers imprisoned at the top.

Key events to watch this week

Bitcoin’s ability to maintain your profits or expand higher will probably depend on the key macroeconomic and regulatory development in the coming days.

On Wednesday, the markets will receive the latest data of the purchasing managers index (PMI), a key economic indicator that can affect the expectations of federal reserve policy. If PMI data show signs of economic weakness, this may raise speculation about potential foot cuts that can be provided by wind for risk assets, including bitcoins. However, stronger than expected data can strengthen the view that the FED will maintain its restrictive attitude of politics, potentially pressing both cryptographic and actions.

Friday introduces the issue of a non-foam report (NFP), a key employment indicator that has historically affected market moods. A robust report on work can signal continuous economic resistance, reducing the likelihood of low -term foot cuts, which may negatively affect bitcoins. And vice versa, weaker than the expected report may fuel the risk moods, which additionally supported the BTC rush.

Also on Friday, it is expected that the Cryptographic Summit of the White House will ensure critical insight into the future of the American strategic cryptographic reserve. If physical ads appear, BTC may raise. However, if the event does not provide a significant direction of politics, the market may react negatively, which leads to increased variability.

As QCP Capital put it: “Just when we think Trump has exhausted his cards, it may still have more surprises. Will it be an emphasis on this elusive high level of all time? We will watch. “

During the BTC press it traded at USD 90,352.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com