So far in July, Bitcoin price has been showing positive moves, coming out of June’s bearish trend and rising to up-to-date monthly highs. While this rally has been encouraging, it still leaves doubts in the hearts of investors as BTC price remains below $70,000. As the month draws to a close, the question remains whether Bitcoin price will end the month in the green or will once again fall into bearish territory.

How the price of bitcoin has behaved historically

Historical data can often be useful for investors when it comes to volatile assets like Bitcoin, as it can provide insight into which direction the price is headed. First, the price of BTC has repeated the same trends, one of which is the four-year bull market cycle.

In the shorter term, looking at monthly performance can also be a helpful indicator of where the price of bitcoin might be headed, especially when considering how the months leading up to July have compared to historical data.

By data from Coinglass we can see that Bitcoin’s monthly returns for the first quarter of the year remained in line with 2023’s results. The first three months of January, February, and March were green, just like last year.

However, in Q2, Bitcoin price took an intriguing turn in terms of monthly performance. Instead of sticking to previous performance, each month did the opposite of what happened in the same month in 2023.

For example, in April 2023, Bitcoin saw positive monthly returns of 2.81%, but turned negative in April 2024, with the price sinking by 14.76%. This was true for both May and June, with an 11.07% enhance in May 2024 compared to a 6.98% decrease in May 2023, and a 6.96% decrease in June 2024 compared to an 11.98% enhance in June 2023.

As we enter the third quarter of the year, Bitcoin seems to be following the trend that began in the second quarter. In the week before the end of July, the price of Bitcoin is already up 7.27%, compared to a decline of 4.02% in July 2023.

Now, if the third quarter goes in the same direction as the second, it means that July could end July 2024 in the green. Furthermore, considering that August 2023 saw the BTC price close the month with a loss of 11.29%, this bodes well for the price as it could indicate a price rally in August as well.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com