Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has fallen more than 35% against Bitcoin (BTC) over the past year, and the downward trend may continue.
Key takeaways:
- ETH could fall another 40% as this reflects the 2025 bear trend setup.
- Increasing Ether reserves on Binance, even as Bitcoin reserves decline, augment the case for ETH to fall further.
ETH risks a 40% decline after crossing the multi-year trend line
ETH/BTC remains below the multi-year downtrend line that has capped every breakout attempt since 2022, including the one that preceded the nearly 70% decline in 2024-2025.
ETH/BTC monthly chart. Source: TradingView
Currently, a similar setup appears to be taking shape again.
After retesting the same trend line in August 2025, ETH/BTC was rejected near the confluence of resistance encompassing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-month exponential moving average (50-month EMA, red).
The pair has since fallen and fallen below its 20-month EMA support (green) near 0.034 BTC, which means that sellers are still dominating the trend.
The next major downside target for 2026 is around 0.0176 BTC if weakness continues. This level, approximately 40% lower than current rates, coincides with the low of the 2020 cycle.
Exchange reserves highlight ETH-BTC divergence
Data from the exchange indicates continued sell-side risk for Ether.
According to the data source, in May, ETH reserves on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume, increased to 3.62 million ETH, accounting for approximately 24.6% of all ETH held on exchanges. CryptoQuant.
Ethereum reserves on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
In comparison, Bitcoin reserves on Binance have declined.
Bitcoin reserves on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
Increasing swap balances usually signal that there are more tokens available for sale, which can impact price when demand is not forceful enough to absorb the additional supply.
On the other hand, falling reserves often suggest that coins are being withdrawn from exchanges for long-term storage.
In this sense, Binance’s reserve trends reinforce the broader market picture: Ether is facing a relatively larger available supply, while Bitcoin is showing signs of less liquidity on the exchange side.
Related: Four signs that Ethereum’s rally has run out at 2.4k dollars
Ethereum’s weakness reflects a broader change in fundamentals. Ether has lagged behind Bitcoin over the years, in part because Ethereum’s “ultrasonic money” narrative has lost momentum.
BTC, on the other hand, continues to draw strength from corporate accumulation led by companies like Strategy and its increasing integration into Wall Street portfolios.
