Bitcoin (BTC)’s recent rebound above $71,000 suggests that the price has officially bottomed and there is bullish momentum across the cryptocurrency market. TOTAL2, which tracks the market capitalization of all crypto assets except Bitcoin, maintains support at the 200-week moving average, but is altcoin season coming?
The divergence between Bitcoin’s rally and the altcoin’s subdued price action is starting to draw attention to alt-season indicators, raising the question of whether the broader market could soon follow BTC’s lead.
TOTAL2 tests long-term support just under $1 trillion
TOTAL2’s market capitalization peaked near $1.7 trillion in October 2025, but is now $970 billion, down about 43%. The decline accelerated in January after market capitalization broke a three-year rising trend line near $1.15 trillion.
The market’s attention has now shifted to support from higher time frames. On the weekly chart, TOTAL2’s market capitalization is trading near its 200-week moving average near $900 billion, a level that was maintained during the September 2024 and April 2025 market corrections.
The daily chart shows consolidation below the previous trend line and resistance band from $1.1 trillion to $1.25 trillion, a zone where there were previously immense pockets of liquidity.
Altcoin positioning indicators coincide with the decline in TOTAL2. CryptoQuanta data highlighted that 36.8% of altcoins are trading near their historical lows, excluding Bitcoin, Ether (ETH), and stablecoins.
These elevated readings occur as capital concentrates on larger assets. XWIN research he said the detection of bitcoin inflows into ETFs and the growing number of tokens have intensified competition for liquidity for smaller assets over the past year.
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Altcoin Averages Near Cycle Lows
Data from CryptoQuant scratched how deeply altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin. The altcoin’s average price is 44.4% below its 200-day straightforward moving average (SMA), a level historically seen near bearish lows.
Stock market data shows similar weakness. Only 4.59% of altcoins listed on Binance are trading above their 200-day SMA, confirming the robust phase led by Bitcoin.
The expansion of altcoins usually starts with the leadership of Ether (ETH). The ETH/BTC pair has not established an uptrend and is still moving in a descending channel on the weekly chart.
A move above 0.036 may signal the first break of the local channel resistance and a signal of improving relative strength for ETH. A stronger change in capital rotation could emerge if the pair regains 0.043, a level that previously acted as resistance to a broader decline in 2025.
Until these levels are regained, Bitcoin’s momentum continues to dominate the resurgent cryptocurrency market.
Market analysts are also debating whether the next altcoin cycle will resemble previous rallies. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan recently said that future altcoin seasons may not lift the overall market evenly, arguing that capital will most likely be concentrated in projects with greater adoption and real-world applications.
Related: Bitcoin vs. Gold: ETF Flows Show Early Signs of Capital Rotation
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